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Volume 32, Number 10—October 2026

Dispatch

Characteristics and Superspreading Potential of Andes Virus Person-to-Person Transmission

Zihao Guo1Comments to Author , Kailun Pan1, Yu Zhao, Sheikh Taslim Ali, Kai Wang, Lirong Cao, Zhuang Cui, Shengqiang Liu, Ka Chun Chong, Daihai He, Shi ZhaoComments to Author , and Yuantao Hao2
Author affiliation: Tianjin Medical University School of Public Health, Tianjin, China (Z. Guo, K. Pan, Z. Cui, S. Zhao); The Chinese University of Hong Kong JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Hong Kong, China (Z. Guo, L. Cao, K.C. Chong); Ningxia Medical University School of Public Health, Yinchuan, China (Y. Zhao); The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong (S.T. Ali); Xinjiang Medical University Department of Medical Engineering and Technology, Urumqi, China (K. Wang); Tiangong University School of Mathematical Sciences, Tianjin (S. Liu); The Hong Kong Polytechnic University Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong (D. He); Peking University Center for Public Health and Epidemic Preparedness and Response, Beijing, China (Y. Hao); Peking University School of Public Health, Beijing (Y. Hao); Peking University Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Epidemiology of Major Diseases, Beijing (Y. Hao)

Main Article

Figure 2

Projected outbreak trajectories from a study of characteristics and superspreading potential of Andes virus person-to-person transmission. Graph shows 1,000 branching process simulations within 10 weeks after symptom onset of the seed case (April 3, 2026), using a plausible range of the initial reproduction number (0.4–2.5) of the MV Hondius cruise ship cluster and pooled dispersion parameter (k) estimates from historical data. Symptom onset dates for secondary cases were randomly sampled from the pooled serial interval distribution. Black triangles indicate the cumulative number of cases observed in the cruise ship outbreak as of May 27, 2026. The blue dashed vertical line marks the initial World Health Organization notification date of the outbreak (May 2, 2026), after which effective control measures were assumed to have been implemented (i.e., the reproduction number was assumed to decrease). The right y-axis shows the corresponding attack rate based on a ship population of 147.

Figure 2. Projected outbreak trajectories from a study of characteristics and superspreading potential of Andes virus person-to-person transmission. Graph shows 1,000 branching process simulations within 10 weeks after symptom onset of the seed case (April 3, 2026), using a plausible range of the initial reproduction number (0.4–2.5) of the MV Hondius cruise ship cluster and pooled dispersion parameter (k) estimates from historical data. Symptom onset dates for secondary cases were randomly sampled from the pooled serial interval distribution. Black triangles indicate the cumulative number of cases observed in the cruise ship outbreak as of May 27, 2026. The blue dashed vertical line marks the initial World Health Organization notification date of the outbreak (May 2, 2026), after which effective control measures were assumed to have been implemented (i.e., the reproduction number was assumed to decrease). The right y-axis shows the corresponding attack rate based on a ship population of 147.

Main Article

1These authors contributed equally to this article.

2Senior author.

Page created: August 13, 2026
Page updated: September 11, 2026
Page reviewed: September 11, 2026
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