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Volume 32, Number 4—April 2026

Research Letter

Acute Febrile Illness Surveillance for Estimating Population Immunity, Dominican Republic, 2021

Eric J. NillesComments to Author , Cecilia Then Paulino, Marietta Vasquez, William Duke, Petr Jarolim, Ronald Skewes Ramm, Adam Kucharski, and Colleen L. Lau
Author affiliation: Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA (E.J. Nilles); Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA (E.J. Nilles, P. Jarolim); Ministry of Public Health and Social Assistance, Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic (C.T. Paulino, R.S. Ramm); Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut, USA (M. Vazquez); National University Pedro Henríquez Ureña, Santo Domingo (W. Duke); Harvard Medical School, Boston (P. Jarolim); London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK (A. Kucharski); The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia (C.L. Lau)

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Table

Baseline characteristics of surveillance and survey participants before and after propensity score matching for study of acute febrile illness surveillance for estimating population immunity, Dominican Republic, 2021*

Variable Surveillance, n = 115 Survey, unmatched, n = 962 Survey, matched,† n = 575
Age group, y
0–14 10 (8.7) 91 (9.5) 55 (9.6)
15–34 52 (45.2) 316 (32.8) 239 (41.6)
35–54 29 (25.2) 280 (29.1) 156 (27.1)
>55
24 (20.9)
275 (28.6)
125 (21.7)
Median age, y (IQR)
33 (25–52)
40 (24–57)
34 (22–53)
COVID-19 vaccines
None 30 (26.1) 149 (15.5) 144 (25.0)
1 5 (4.3) 109 (11.3) 31 (5.4)
2 71 (61.7) 603 (62.7) 355 (61.7)
3 9 (7.8) 101 (10.5) 45 (7.8)
Mean (+SD)
1.5 (1.0)
1.7 (0.9)
1.5 (1.0)
Days since last vaccination, mean (+SD)
62.1 (54.3)
76.7 (44.7)
73.8 (40.4)
Sex
F 78 (67.8) 658 (68.4) 408 (71.0)
M
37 (32.2)
304 (31.6)
167 (29.0)
Province
Espaillat 60 (52.2) 309 (32.1) 203 (35.3)
San Pedro de Macorís 52 (45.2) 572 (59.5) 318 (55.3)
Santiago
3 (2.6)
81 (8.4)
54 (9.4)
Setting
Rural 82 (71.3) 486 (50.5) 329 (57.2)
Urban
31 (27.0)
476 (49.5)
246 (42.8)
Seroprevalence, mean (+SD)
0.88 (0.33)
0.94 (0.25)
0.92 (0.27)
log10 spike antibody titer
Mean (+SD) 2.4 (1.4) 2.6 (1.2) 2.5 (1.2)
Median (IQR) 2.6 (1.7–3.2) 2.7 (1.9–3.4) 2.6 (1.9–3.2)

*Values are no. (%) participants except as indicated. The study compared SARS-CoV-2 spike antibody data collected during July–October 2021 in the same Dominican Republic provinces from a longitudinal AFI surveillance system embedded in routine healthcare settings (“surveillance”) (4), which included routine blood collection for serologic testing; and a multistage, population-representative household serologic survey (“survey”) (1). Seroprevalence represents the percentage of participants with spike antibody titers above the manufacturer-specified cutoff (≥0.8 U/mL). IQR, interquartile range. †The matched survey dataset was generated through 1:5 nearest-neighbor propensity score matching of survey participants to surveillance participants, using age and number of COVID-19 vaccine doses as matching variables. Because only those variables were included in the propensity model, differences in other characteristics (e.g., province, setting, days since last vaccination) reflect inherent differences between the underlying sampling frames rather than confounding in the matched analysis. ‡Two surveillance participants were missing data for setting.

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References
  1. Nilles  EJ, Paulino  CT, de St. Aubin  M, Restrepo  AC, Mayfield  H, Dumas  D, et al. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence, cumulative infections, and immunity to symptomatic infection—a multistage national household survey and modelling study, Dominican Republic, June–October 2021. Lancet Reg Health Am. 2022;16:100390. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  2. Barber  RM, Sorensen  RJD, Pigott  DM, Bisignano  C, Carter  A, Amlag  JO, et al. COVID-19 Cumulative Infection Collaborators. Estimating global, regional, and national daily and cumulative infections with SARS-CoV-2 through Nov 14, 2021: a statistical analysis. Lancet. 2022;399:235180. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  3. Hallal  PC, Hartwig  FP, Horta  BL, Silveira  MF, Struchiner  CJ, Vidaletti  LP, et al. SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence in Brazil: results from two successive nationwide serological household surveys. Lancet Glob Health. 2020;8:e13908. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  4. Nilles  EJ, de St. Aubin  M, Dumas  D, Duke  W, Etienne  MC, Abdalla  G, et al. Monitoring temporal changes in SARS-CoV-2 spike antibody levels and variant-specific risk for infection, Dominican Republic, March 2021–August 2022. Emerg Infect Dis. 2023;29:72333. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  5. Nilles  EJ, Paulino  CT, de St. Aubin  M, Duke  W, Jarolim  P, Sanchez  IM, et al. Tracking immune correlates of protection for emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants. Lancet Infect Dis. 2023;394:101. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  6. Nilles  EJ, Roberts  K, de St. Aubin  M, Mayfield  H, Restrepo  AC, Garnier  S, et al. Convergence of SARS-CoV-2 spike antibody levels to a population immune setpoint. EBioMedicine. 2024;108:105319. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar

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Page created: March 19, 2026
Page updated: April 15, 2026
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