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Volume 8, Number 4—April 2002
Historical Review

Megadrought and Megadeath in 16th Century Mexico

Rodolfo Acuna-Soto*, David W. Stahle†Comments to Author , Malcolm K. Cleaveland†, and Matthew D. Therrell†
Author affiliations: *Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Ciudad Universitaria, Mexico; †University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA;

Main Article

Figure 2

Winter-spring precipitation reconstructed from tree ring data, Durango, Mexico (normalized and smoothed to highlight decennial variability). The tree-ring estimates explain 56% of the variance in precipitation for Durango and are consistent with independent precipitation data. This reconstruction is well correlated with the all-Mexico rainfall index (r = 0.76; p < 0.001) and with precipitation over north central Mexico, where the cocoliztli epidemics appear to have been most severe. Note the unprecedented 16th-century megadrought during both cocoliztli epidemics.

Figure 2. Winter-spring precipitation reconstructed from tree ring data, Durango, Mexico (normalized and smoothed to highlight decennial variability). The tree-ring estimates explain 56% of the variance in precipitation for Durango and are consistent with independent precipitation data. This reconstruction is well correlated with the all-Mexico rainfall index (r = 0.76; p < 0.001) and with precipitation over north central Mexico, where the cocoliztli epidemics appear to have been most severe. Note the unprecedented 16th-century megadrought during both cocoliztli epidemics.

Main Article

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