Volume 9, Number 10—October 2003
Research
Environmental Risk and Meningitis Epidemics in Africa
Anna M. Molesworth*, Luis E. Cuevas*, Stephen J. Connor*, Andrew P. Morse†, and Madeleine C. Thomson*
Table 3
Performance of the model for predicting epidemic experience at the district levela
| Epidemic experience | Observed | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Predicted |
Ever |
Never |
Total districts |
| Ever |
1,022 |
682 |
1,704 |
| Never |
209 |
1,363 |
1,572 |
| Total districts |
1,231 |
2,045 |
3,276 |
| Model |
Sensitivity % (95% CI) |
Specificity % (95% CI) |
|
| Final (100%) |
83 (81 to 85) |
67 (65 to 69) |
|
| Mean validation (40%) | 84 (80 to 87) | 65 (62 to 69) | |
aExcludes five districts for which environmental data were unavailable; CI, confidence interval.
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