Volume 10, Number 4—April 2004
Research
Epidemiologic Determinants for Modeling Pneumonic Plague Outbreaks
Raymond Gani*
and Steve Leach*
and Steve Leach*
Table
Documented outbreaks of primary pneumonic plague from which transmission data were derived.
| Y and location | Total of PP cases in outbreaka | No. of PP cases before interventionb | Transmission events | Average of secondary transmissions per primary transmission |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle USA, 1907 (30) |
5 |
5 |
4 |
0.8 |
| Oakland USA, 1919 (24) |
13 |
6 |
12 |
2.0 |
| Ecuador, 1939 (23) |
18 |
4 |
6 |
1.5 |
| Mukden, China, 1946 (25) |
39 |
9 |
8 |
0.9 |
| Rangoon, 1946 (31) |
16 |
11 |
22 |
2.0 |
| NW Madagascar, 1957 (32) |
42 |
35 |
39 |
1.1 |
| Zambia, 1993 (33) |
3 |
3 |
2 |
0.7 |
| Madagascar, 1997 (26) | 18 | 1 | 3 | 3.0 |
aIncludes index case.
bOnly includes cases where the infecting person could be identified.
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