Volume 14, Number 10—October 2008
Research
Estimating Community Incidence of Salmonella, Campylobacter, and Shiga Toxin–producing Escherichia coli Infections, Australia
Gillian Hall
, Keflemariam Yohannes, Jane Raupach, Niels Becker, and Martyn Kirk
, Keflemariam Yohannes, Jane Raupach, Niels Becker, and Martyn Kirk
Table 3
Probabilities and underreporting factors for each category of duration of diarrhea by blood in stool, for salmonellosis, campylobacteriosis, and STEC infections*
| Condition/predictor symptoms | Probability of: |
Probability for a case to be reported† (95% CrI) | Multiplier‡ (95% CrI) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) Case-patient visiting a doctor (95% CrI) | (b) Stool being tested (95% CrI) | (c) Positive stool results (95% CrI) | (d) Notification by laboratory | |||
| Salmonellosis | ||||||
| With blood | ||||||
| 1–2 d | 0.10 (0.07–0.14) | 0.85 (0.72–0.98) | 0.98 (0.95–1.00) | 1.00 | 0.09 (0.06–0.12) | 11.39 (8.49–16.36) |
| 3–4 d | 0.43 (0.31–0.54) | 0.85 (0.72–0.98) | 0.98 (0.95–1.00) | 1.00 | 0.36 (0.25–0.46) | 2.82 (2.17–3.98) |
| >5 d | 0.67 (0.46–0.88) | 0.85 (0.72–0.98) | 0.98 (0.95–1.00) | 1.00 | 0.55 (0.368–0.75) | 1.81 (1.33–2.72) |
| Without blood | ||||||
| 1–2 d | 0.10 (0.07–0.14) | 0.07 (0.02–0.02) | 0.98 (0.95–1.00) | 1.00 | 0.01 (0.003–0.01) | 143.29 (83.30–371.0) |
| 3–4 d | 0.43 (0.31–0.54) | 0.19 (0.071–0.36) | 0.98 (0.95–1.00) | 1.00 | 0.08 (0.010–0.16) | 13.06 (6.37–67.83) |
| >5 d |
0.67 (0.46–0.88) |
0.40(0.133–0.67) |
0.98 (0.95–1.00) |
1.00 |
0.25 (0.075–0.48) |
3.93
(2.10–11.92) |
| Campylobacteriosis | ||||||
| With blood | ||||||
| 1–2 d | 0.10 (0.07–0.14) | 0.85 (0.72–0.98) | 0.90 (0.85–0.95) | 1.00 | 0.08 (0.056–0.11) | 12.40 (9.16–17.82) |
| 3–4 d | 0.43 (0.31–0.54) | 0.85 (0.72–0.98) | 0.90 (0.85–0.95) | 1.00 | 0.33 (0.231–0.43) | 3.06 (2.32–4.33) |
| >5 d | 0.67 (0.46–0.88) | 0.85 (0.72–0.98) | 0.90 (0.85–0.95) | 1.00 | 0.51 (0.339– 0.70) | 1.97 (1.42–2.95) |
| Without blood | ||||||
| 1–2 d | 0.10 (0.07–0.14) | 0.069 (0.02– 0.12) | 0.90 (0.85–0.95) | 1.00 | 0.01 (0.002–0.01) | 154.17 (89.31–397.59) |
| 3–4 d | 0.43 (0.31–0.54) | 0.185 (0.071–0.36) | 0.90 (0.85–0.95) | 1.00 | 0.07 (0.009–0.15) | 14.15 (6.80–73.32) |
| >5 d |
0.67 (0.46–0.88) |
0.400 (0.133–0.67) |
0.90 (0.85–0.95) |
1.00 |
0.24 (0.068–0.44) |
4.25
(2.25–13.36) |
| STEC in South Australia | ||||||
| With blood | ||||||
| 1–2 d | 0.10 (0.07–0.14) | 0.85 (0.72–0.98) | 0.88 (0.83–0.93) | 1.00 | 0.08 (0.0.05–0.11) | 13.02 (9.50–18.37) |
| 3–4 d | 0.43 (0.31–0.54) | 0.85 (0.72–0.98) | 0.88 (0.83–0.93) | 1.00 | 0.32 (0.22–0.42) | 3.13 (2.36–4.45) |
| >5 d | 0.67 (0.46–0.88) | 0.85 (0.72–0.98) | 0.88 (0.83–0.93) | 1.00 | 0.50 (0.33–0.68) | 2.02 (1.47–3.04) |
| Without blood | ||||||
| 1–2 d | 0.10 (0.07–0.14) | 0.07 (0.02–0.12) | 0.88 (0.83–0.93) | 1.00 | 0.01 (0.001–0.02) | 157.18 (61.67–218.75) |
| 3–4 d | 0.43 (0.31–0.54) | 0.19 (0.071–0.36) | 0.88 (0.83–0.93) | 1.00 | 0.07 (0.01–0.14) | 14.35 (7.38–64.34) |
| >5 d | 0.67 (0.46–0.88) | 0.40 (0.133–0.67) | 0.88 (0.83–0.93) | 1.00 | 0.23 (0.07–0.44) | 4.31 (2.27–13.44) |
*STEC, Shiga toxin–producing Esherichia coli; CrI, credible interval; NF, notification factor.
†NF, product of a × b × c × d.
‡Inverse of NF.
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