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Volume 10, Number 7—July 2004


Estimating Time and Size of Bioterror Attack

Johan Walden* and Edward H. Kaplan*†Comments to Author 
Author affiliations: *Yale School of Management, New Haven, Connecticut, USA; †Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut, USA

Main Article


Real-time estimates of size and time of attack, given the total cases observed in the simulated outbreaka

Days past case no. 1 Total cases Estimated attack size Estimated day of attack
(before case no. 1)
1 5 850 1.1
2 7 120 1.9
3 15 160 1.4
4 18 100 1.8
5 23 90 1.8

aSee Appendix for details.

Main Article