Volume 10, Number 7—July 2004
Perspective
Estimating Time and Size of Bioterror Attack
Johan Walden* and Edward H. Kaplan*†
Table
Real-time estimates of size and time of attack, given the total cases observed in the simulated outbreaka
| Days past case no. 1 | Total cases | Estimated attack size | Estimated day of attack (before case no. 1) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 850 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 7 | 120 | 1.9 |
| 3 | 15 | 160 | 1.4 |
| 4 | 18 | 100 | 1.8 |
| 5 | 23 | 90 | 1.8 |
aSee Appendix for details.
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