Skip directly to site content Skip directly to page options Skip directly to A-Z link Skip directly to A-Z link Skip directly to A-Z link
Volume 10, Number 7—July 2004
Research

Model Parameters and Outbreak Control for SARS

Gerardo Chowell*†Comments to Author , Carlos Castillo-Chavez‡1, Paul W. Fenimore*, Christopher M. Kribs-Zaleta§, Leon Arriola*, and James M. Hyman*
Author affiliations: *Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA; †Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA; ‡Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, USA; §University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, Texas, USA

Main Article

Figure 2

Empiric (dots) and stretched exponential estimated probability density function Prob(R0) = a exp[–(R0/b)c] (solid line) (16) of R0 for the cases of Toronto (a = 0.186, b = 0.803, c = 0.957, after control measures had been implemented), Hong Kong (a = 0.281, b = 1.312, c = 0.858), and Singapore (a = 0.213, b = 1.466, c = 0.883) obtained from our uncertainty analysis. The distribution for the case of perfect isolation (l = 0, a = 0.369, b = 0.473, c = 0.756) is shown as a reference.

Figure 2. . Empiric (dots) and stretched exponential estimated probability density function Prob(R0) = a exp[–(R0/b)c] (solid line) (16) of R0 for the cases of Toronto (a = 0.186, b = 0.803, c = 0.957, after control measures had been implemented), Hong Kong (a = 0.281, b = 1.312, c = 0.858), and Singapore (a = 0.213, b = 1.466, c = 0.883) obtained from our uncertainty analysis. The distribution for the case of perfect isolation (l = 0, a = 0.369, b = 0.473, c = 0.756) is shown as a reference.

Main Article

References
  1. Kamps  BS, Hoffmann  C, eds. SARS Reference [monograph on the Internet]. 3rd ed. 2003 Oct [cited 2003 Jul 5]. Available from: http://www.sarsreference.com/sarsref/summary.htm
  2. World Health Organization. Cumulative number of reported probable cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) [monograph on the Internet]. [cited 2003 Jul 5]. Available from: http://www.who.int/csr/sarscountry/en/
  3. Donnelly  CA, Ghani  AC, Leung  GM, Hedley  AJ, Fraser  C, Riley  S, Epidemiological determinants of spread of causal agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong. Lancet. 2003;361:1761–6. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  4. Vogel  G. Flood of sequence data yields clues but few answers. Science. 2003;300:1062. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  5. Booth  CM, Matukas  LM, Tomlinson  GA, Rachlis  AR, Rose  DB, Dwosh  HA, Clinical features and short-term outcomes of 144 patients with SARS in the greater Toronto area. JAMA. 2003;289:2801–9. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  6. Health chief says 94 percent of SARS cases result of hospital infections [news release on the Internet]. Taiwan Headlines. 2003 May 20 [cited 2003 Jul 5]. Available from: http://www.taiwanheadlines.gov.tw/20030520/20030520s1.html
  7. World Health Organization. Update 28 – affected areas, status of SARS outbreaks in individual countries [monograph on the Internet]. 2003 Apr 12 [cited 2003 20 May]. Available from: http://www.who.int/csr/sarsarchive/2003_04_12/en/
  8. Lipsitch  M, Cohen  T, Cooper  B, Robins  JM, Ma  S, James  L, Transmission dynamics and control of severe acute respiratory syndrome. Science. 2003;300:1966–70. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  9. Riley  S, Fraser  C, Donnelly  CA, Ghani  AC, Abu-Raddad  LJ, Hedley  AJ, Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: impact of public health interventions. Science. 2003;300:1961–6. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  10. Chowell  G, Fenimore  PW, Castillo-Garsow  MA, Castillo-Chavez  C. SARS outbreaks in Ontario, Hong Kong and Singapore: the role of diagnosis and isolation as a control mechanism. J Theor Biol. 2003;224:1–8. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  11. Brown  D. A model of epidemic control. The Washington Post. 2003 May 3. p. A07.
  12. Sanchez  MA, Blower  SM. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproductive rate: tuberculosis as an example. Am J Epidemiol. 1997;145:1127–37.PubMedGoogle Scholar
  13. Blower  SM, Dowlatabadi  H. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of complex models of disease transmission: an HIV model, as an example. Int Stat Rev. 1994;2:229–43. DOIGoogle Scholar
  14. Velasco-Hernandez  JX, Gershengorn  HB, Blower  SM. Could widespread use of combination antiretroviral therapy eradicate HIV epidemics? Lancet Infect Dis. 2002;2:487–93. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  15. Kendall  MG, Stuart  A. The advanced theory of statistics. 4th ed. New York: Macmillan Publishing Co.; 1979.
  16. Kohlrausch  R. Ann Phys (Leipzig). 1847;12:393–8.
  17. Mandavilli  A. SARS epidemic unmasks age-old quarantine conundrum. Nat Med. 2003;9:487. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  18. Caswell  H. Matrix population models. 2nd ed. Sunderland (MA): Sinauer Associates, Inc. Publishers; 2001.
  19. Chowell  G, Fenimore  PW, Castillo-Garsow  MA, Castillo-Chavez  C. SARS outbreaks in Ontario, Hong Kong, and Singapore: the role of diagnosis and isolation as a control mechanism. J Theor Biol. 2003;224:1–8. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar

Main Article

1At the time this work was carried out, Dr. Castillo-Chavez was on sabbatical at Los Alamos National Laboratory and faculty of Cornell University.

2Recall that l = 0 corresponds to complete isolation, whereas l = 1 means no effective isolation occurs. Hence, a decrease in l means an increase in the effective isolation of the infected persons.

Page created: April 23, 2012
Page updated: April 23, 2012
Page reviewed: April 23, 2012
The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.
file_external