Skip directly to site content Skip directly to page options Skip directly to A-Z link Skip directly to A-Z link Skip directly to A-Z link
Volume 11, Number 8—August 2005

Cost-Benefit of Stockpiling Drugs for Influenza Pandemic

Ran D. Balicer*†Comments to Author , Michael Huerta*, Nadav Davidovitch*†, and Itamar Grotto*†
Author affiliations: *Ministry of Health, Jerusalem, Israel; †Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Be'er-Sheva, Israel

Main Article

Table 1

Point estimate and range of values for selected model variables*

Variable Point estimate Range
Overall attack rate, %† 25 15–35
Probability of pandemic (per year) 3 1–10
Adult workdays lost, by age, y
<1–≤18 3.7 2–5
19–64 4.9 3–7
≥65 0.5 0.25–2
Average hospital stay (days) by age, y
<1–≤18 4.0 2–5
19–64 5.8 2–7
≥65 7.0 4-9
Patients seeking medical care within 48 h, % 80 70–90
Efficacy of antiviral prophylaxis, %
Preexposure prophylaxis (50 days) 71 57–85
Postexposure prophylaxis (7 days) 36 25–47
Efficacy of antiviral therapy, %
Reduction in hospitalizations 59 30–70
Reduction in antimicrobial drug use
Reduction in lost workdays under treatment 1 0.5–1.5

*Complete list and references available in online Appendix.
†Population attack rate was calculated by stratifying the population by age and risk and applying age- and risk-specific attack rates and ranges (Appendix).

Main Article

Page created: April 23, 2012
Page updated: April 23, 2012
Page reviewed: April 23, 2012
The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.