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Volume 12, Number 11—November 2006
Research

Targeted Social Distancing Designs for Pandemic Influenza

Robert J. Glass*Comments to Author , Laura M. Glass†, Walter E. Beyeler*, and H. Jason Min*
Author affiliations: *Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA; †Albuquerque Public High School, Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA

Main Article

Table 4

Unmitigated case results for Ro and average attack rates (%) for increasing ID and base case, variation 1, variation 2, and variations 1 and 2 combined*

Type ID factor Ro Attack rates
Overall SD Children SD Teenagers SD Adults SD Older adults SD
Base case 1.0 1.6 51 1.7 79 2.3 72 2.7 45 1.8 23 2.0
1.25 1.8 66 1.2 90 1.1 85 1.7 61 1.5 36 2.1
1.5 2.0 75 0.7 95 0.6 92 1.1 71 0.9 47 1.9
2.0 2.4 86 0.6 99 0.3 97 0.5 84 0.7 64 2.0
Variation 1 1.0 1.5 52 2.2 65 2.8 68 3.2 50 2.2 30 2.5
1.25 1.7 70 1.3 82 1.4 84 1.8 68 1.5 47 2.3
1.5 1.9 80 0.8 90 1.0 91 0.9 79 0.9 60 2.0
2.0 2.4 90 0.5 96 0.6 97 0.7 90 0.6 76 1.6
Variation 2 1.0 1.5 52 1.9 72 2.6 64 2.9 50 2.1 19 1.7
1.25 1.8 68 1.0 87 1.3 81 1.6 68 1.3 31 2.1
1.5 1.9 78 0.8 93 0.9 89 1.2 79 1.0 41 2.2
2.0 2.3 88 0.5 98 0.4 96 0.7 90 0.7 57 1.9
Variations 1 and 2 combined 1.0 1.5 52 2.0 55 2.3 57 2.7 56 2.3 23 1.7
1.25 1.8 70 1.1 74 1.8 76 1.9 75 1.2 37 2.0
1.5 2.0 80 0.8 84 1.2 85 1.2 85 0.8 48 2.0
2.0 2.4 90 0.4 93 0.6 94 0.9 94 0.5 65 1.8

*Variation 1 is removal of relative infectivity and susceptibility; variation 2 is an increase in work group frequency of contact to give all children, teenagers, and adults the same overall contact frequencies. Average attack rates accumulate over only those simulations that resulted in epidemics (>100 infected). RO, reproductive number; ID, disease infectivity; SD, standard deviation.

*Variation 1 is removal of relative infectivity and susceptibility; variation 2 is an increase in work group frequency of contact to give all children, teenagers, and adults the same overall contact frequencies. Average attack rates accumulate over only those simulations that resulted in epidemics (>100 infected). RO, reproductive number; ID, disease infectivity; SD, standard deviation.

Main Article

Page created: October 14, 2011
Page updated: October 14, 2011
Page reviewed: October 14, 2011
The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.
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