Volume 14, Number 7—July 2008
Dispatch
Optimizing Use of Multistream Influenza Sentinel Surveillance Data
Table
Performance of alerts generated by individual monitoring of aggregate data and separate data streams, and simultaneous monitoring of multiple data streams by using univariate and multivariate time series models, Hong Kong, 1998–2007*
Data | Univariate models |
Multivariate models† |
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AUWROC | Sensitivity‡ | Timeliness, wk‡ | AUWROC | Sensitivity‡ | Timeliness, wk‡ | ||
Aggregated data | |||||||
GP | 0.78 | 1.00 | 2.41 | – | – | – | |
GOPC |
0.86 |
1.00 |
1.50 |
– |
– |
– |
|
Single stream | |||||||
GP | |||||||
HK | 0.75 | 1.00 | 2.36 | 0.73 | 0.87 | 2.64 | |
KL | 0.66 | 1.00 | 2.71 | 0.62 | 0.88 | 3.06 | |
NTE | 0.89 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.76 | 0.90 | 2.04 | |
NTW | 0.80 | 1.00 | 2.07 | 0.80 | 0.91 | 2.24 | |
GOPC | |||||||
HK | 0.79 | 1.00 | 2.21 | 0.71 | 0.89 | 2.42 | |
KL | 0.78 | 1.00 | 2.46 | 0.62 | 0.96 | 3.15 | |
NTE | 0.79 | 0.95 | 2.22 | 0.79 | 0.96 | 2.26 | |
NTW |
0.73 |
1.00 |
2.55 |
0.72 |
1.00 |
2.52 |
|
Multiple streams | |||||||
M1: First aberration | 0.84 | 1.00 | 1.57 | 0.86 | 1.00 | 1.66 | |
M2: 2 simultaneous aberrations | 0.89 | 1.00 | 1.22 | 0.82 | 1.00 | 1.77 | |
M3: 3 simultaneous aberrations | 0.90 | 1.00 | 1.47 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 1.70 | |
M4: Any 2 aberrations in 2 wk | 0.81 | 1.00 | 2.63 | 0.72 | 1.00 | 2.43 | |
M5: Any 2 aberrations in 2 wk | 0.83 | 1.00 | 2.44 | 0.77 | 1.00 | 2.11 |
*AUWROC, area under the weighted receiver operating characteristic curve; GP, general practitioner; GOPC, general outpatient clinic; HK, Hong Kong Island; KL, Kowloon; NTE, New Territories East; NTW, New Territories West.
†See Technical Appendix for more detailed description of the multivariate model.
‡At a fixed specificity of 0.95.