Transmission Dynamics, Border Entry Screening, and School Holidays during the 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) Pandemic, China
Enfu Chen
1, Simon Cauchemez
1, Christl A. Donnelly, Lei Zhou, Luzhao Feng, Nijuan Xiang, Jiandong Zheng, Min Ye, Yang Huai, Qiaohong Liao, Zhibin Peng, Yunxia Feng, Hui Jiang, Weizhong Yang, Yu Wang, Neil M. Ferguson

, and Zijian Feng
Author affiliations: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, People’s Republic of China (H. Yu, L. Zhou, L. Feng, N. Xiang, J. Zheng, M. Ye, Y. Huai, Q. Liao, Z. Peng, Y. Feng, H. Jiang, W. Yang, Y. Wang, Z. Feng); Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom (S. Cauchemez, C.A. Donnelly, N.M. Ferguson)
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Table 1
Reproduction numbers obtained by fitting a simple epidemic model to numbers of influenza-like illness cases attributable to pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus, People’s Republic of China, September–October 2009*
Interval |
Mean (95% credible interval) |
School term 1 (Sep 6–Oct 1) |
1.25 (1.22–1.28) |
Holidays (Oct 1–8)† |
0.79 (0.69–0.90) |
School term 2 (Oct 9–25) |
1.23 (1.15–1.33) |
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Page updated: April 17, 2012
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