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Volume 18, Number 5—May 2012


Transmission Dynamics, Border Entry Screening, and School Holidays during the 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) Pandemic, China

Enfu Chen1, Simon Cauchemez1, Christl A. Donnelly, Lei Zhou, Luzhao Feng, Nijuan Xiang, Jiandong Zheng, Min Ye, Yang Huai, Qiaohong Liao, Zhibin Peng, Yunxia Feng, Hui Jiang, Weizhong Yang, Yu Wang, Neil M. FergusonComments to Author , and Zijian Feng
Author affiliations: Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, People’s Republic of China (H. Yu, L. Zhou, L. Feng, N. Xiang, J. Zheng, M. Ye, Y. Huai, Q. Liao, Z. Peng, Y. Feng, H. Jiang, W. Yang, Y. Wang, Z. Feng); Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom (S. Cauchemez, C.A. Donnelly, N.M. Ferguson)

Main Article

Table 1

Reproduction numbers obtained by fitting a simple epidemic model to numbers of influenza-like illness cases attributable to pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus, People’s Republic of China, September–October 2009*

Interval Mean (95% credible interval)
School term 1 (Sep 6–Oct 1) 1.25 (1.22–1.28)
Holidays (Oct 1–8)† 0.79 (0.69–0.90)
School term 2 (Oct 9–25) 1.23 (1.15–1.33)

*Fitted on data for the calendar weeks before and after the National Day Holiday.
†Period of National Day Holiday. Details can be found in Technical Appendix Table 1.

Main Article

1These authors contributed equally to this article.