Volume 19, Number 3—March 2013
Research
Effects of Vaccine Program against Pandemic Influenza A(H1N1) Virus, United States, 2009–2010
Rebekah H. Borse1, Sundar S. Shrestha, Anthony E. Fiore, Charisma Y. Atkins, James A. Singleton, Carolyn Furlow, and Martin I. Meltzer
Table 7
Sensitivity analyses showing estimates of clinical cases prevented by acceleration of vaccination against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus*
| Dates of vaccination program | Point estimate | Range |
|---|---|---|
| Hypothetical dates | ||
| 2009 Aug 08–2010 21 Feb | 4,176,031 | 2,974,975–5,970,682 |
| 2009 Aug 15–2010 28 Feb | 3,742,600 | 2,674,232–5,322,588 |
| 2009 Aug 22–2010 07 Mar | 3,299,591 | 2,366,468–4,668,558 |
| 2009 Aug 29–2010 14 Mar | 2,855,894 | 2,054,754–4,020,843 |
| 2009 Sep 05–2010 21 Mar | 2,422,481 | 1,747,781–3,398,603 |
| 2009 Sep 12–2010 28 Mar | 2,010,198 | 1,450,291–2,817,245 |
| 2009 Sep 19–2010 04 Apr | 1,633,200 | 1,171,673–2,292,018 |
| 2009 Sep 26–2010 11 Apr |
1,303,621 |
922,931–1,836,514 |
| Actual dates | ||
| 2009 Oct 03–2010 18 Apr† | 1,029,157 | 712,908–1,458,930 |
*The epidemic curve that was used to generate these estimates was the base case estimate, which was based on the assumption that a vaccination program did not exist. Data reflect calculations made for scenario 5 by estimating effects of moving the start date of the program to begin 8 weeks to 1 week earlier.
†See Table 2, Appendix, wwwnc.cdc.gov/EID/article/19/3/12-0394-T2.htm.
1Current affiliation: Merck & Co., Inc., Lansdale, Pennsylvania, USA.
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