Volume 19, Number 4—April 2013
Research
Deaths Associated with Influenza Pandemic of 1918–19, Japan
Siddharth Chandra
Table 1
Population growth models and population loss estimates for Japan, 1903–1930 data*
| Estimate |
Model |
||||||||
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
||
| Includes Kanto earthquake prefectures† | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | No | No | No | |
| Includes Hokkaido outlier | Yes | Yes | No | No | Yes | Yes | No | No | |
| Includes 1918 population count data | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | |
| Intercept, γ00 | 13.6120‡ | 13.5957‡ | 13.6197‡ | 13.6040‡ | 13.5799‡ | 13.5623‡ | 13.5876‡ | 13.5706‡ | |
| 0.0524 | 0.0530 | 0.0530 | 0.0535 | 0.0534 | 0.0537 | 0.0541 | 0.0543 | ||
| Time trend, γ10 | 0.0103‡ | 0.011‡ | 0.0095‡ | 0.0105‡ | 0.0098‡ | 0.0110‡ | 0.0089‡ | 0.0100‡ | |
| 0.0012 | 0.0012 | 0.0009 | 0.0008 | 0.0012 | 0.0012 | 0.0009 | 0.0008 | ||
| Flu dummy, γ20 | –0.0344‡ | –0.0477‡ | –0.0364‡ | –0.0492‡ | –0.0374‡ | –0.0518‡ | –0.0397‡ | –0.0536‡ | |
| 0.0055 | 0.0070 | 0.0052 | 0.0069 | 0.0055 | 0.0067 | 0.0051 | 0.0067 | ||
| Flu dummy × time trend, γ30 | 0.0006 | –0.0004 | 0.0013§ | 0.0003 | 0.0002 | –0.0010 | 0.0009 | –0.0002 | |
| 0.0009 | 0.0010 | 0.0006 | 0.0007 | 0.0009 | 0.0010 | 0.0006 | 0.0006 | ||
| No. observations | 329 | 282 | 322 | 276 | 301 | 258 | 294 | 252 | |
| Hausman test statistic | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | |
| p>0.9999 | p>0.9999 | p>0.9999 | p>0.9999 | p>0.9999 | p>0.9999 | p>0.9999 | p>0.9999 | ||
| Breusch-Pagan test statistic | 924.89 | 653.01 | 921.41 | 652.71 | 848.22 | 599.17 | 847.85 | 601.55 | |
| p<0.0001 | p<0.0001 | p<0.0001 | p<0.0001 | p<0.0001 | p<0.0001 | p<0.0001 | p<0.0001 | ||
| Population change from influenza, millions | –1.38 | –1.97 | –1.50 | –2.02 | –1.48 | –2.12 | –1.61 | –2.17 | |
| Population change from influenza, % | –2.53 | –3.62 | –2.87 | –3.87 | –3.15 | –4.51 | –3.59 | –4.85 | |
| Population change, 1918–19, millions | –0.66 | –1.21 | –0.89 | –1.38 | –0.90 | –1.49 | –1.13 | –1.65 | |
| Population change, 1918–19, % | –1.20 | –2.19 | –1.69 | –2.60 | –1.89 | –3.13 | –2.51 | –3.65 | |
| Annual population growth rate to pandemic, % | 1.03 | 1.13 | 0.95 | 1.05 | 0.98 | 1.10 | 0.89 | 1.00 | |
| Annual population growth rate after pandemic, % | 1.09 | 1.09 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.98 | 0.98 | |
*Italics indicate SE of the coefficient.
†Chiba, Kanagawa, Shizuoka, Tokyo.
‡p<0.01.
§p<0.05.
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Page updated: March 13, 2013
Page reviewed: March 13, 2013
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