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Volume 19, Number 4—April 2013

Research

Deaths Associated with Influenza Pandemic of 1918–19, Japan

Siddharth ChandraComments to Author 
Author affiliation: Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, USA

Main Article

Table 2

Population growth models and population loss estimates for Japan, 1898–1935 data*

Estimate
 Model
1
 2
 3
 4
 5
 6
 7
 8
Includes Kanto earthquake prefectures† Yes Yes Yes Yes No No No No
Includes Hokkaido outlier Yes Yes No No Yes Yes No No
Includes 1918 population count data Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No
Intercept, γ00 13.6053‡ 13.5971‡ 13.6137‡ 13.6059‡ 13.5755‡ 13.5673‡ 13.5839‡ 13.5762‡
0.0523 0.0526 0.0528 0.0530 0.0537 0.0539 0.0543 0.0545
Time trend, γ10 0.0106‡ 0.0113‡ 0.0097‡ 0.0104‡ 0.0100‡ 0.0107‡ 0.0091‡ 0.0097‡
0.0012 0.0012 0.0009 0.0008 0.0012 0.0012 0.0008 0.0008
Flu dummy, γ20 –0.0355‡ –0.0464‡ –0.0373‡ –0.0476‡ –0.0379‡ –0.0486‡ –0.0399‡ –0.0501‡
0.0053 0.0060 0.0050 0.0060 0.0054 0.0062 0.0051 0.0062
Flu dummy × time trend, γ30 0.0002 –0.0005 0.0009 0.0002 –0.0002 –0.0009 0.0005 –0.0001
0.0009 0.0009 0.0006 0.0006 0.0009 0.0010 0.0006 0.0006
No. observations 423 376 414 368 387 344 378 336
Hausman test statistic <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001 <0.0001
p>0.9999 p>0.9999 p>0.9999 p>0.9999 p>0.9999 p>0.9999 p>0.9999 p>0.9999
Breusch-Pagan test statistic 1525.90 1171.30 1535.75 1183.05 1403.42 1078.01 1422.01 1097.53
p<0.0001 p<0.0001 pp<0.0001 p<0.0001 <0.0001 p<0.0001 p<0.0001 p<0.0001
Population change from Influenza, millions –1.49 –2.02 –1.59 –2.05 –1.52 –1.98 –1.62 –2.01
Population change from Influenza, % –2.72 –3.71 –3.03 –3.92 –3.23 –4.23 –3.62 –4.50
Population change, 1918 to 1919, millions –0.75 –1.25 –0.96 –1.39 –0.93 –1.37 –1.14 –1.51
Population change, 1918 to 1919, % –1.35 –2.26 –1.81 –2.63 –1.96 –2.88 –2.53 –3.34
Annual population growth rate to pandemic, % 1.06 1.13 0.97 1.04 1.00 1.07 0.91 0.97
Annual population growth rate after pandemic, % 1.08 1.08 1.06 1.06 0.98 0.98 0.96 0.96

*Italics indicate SE of the coefficient.
†Chiba, Kanagawa, Shizuoka, Tokyo.
‡p<0.01.

Main Article

Page created: March 13, 2013
Page updated: March 13, 2013
Page reviewed: March 13, 2013
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