Volume 19, Number 4—April 2013
Research
Deaths Associated with Influenza Pandemic of 1918–19, Japan
Table 2
Population growth models and population loss estimates for Japan, 1898–1935 data*
Estimate |
Model |
|||||||
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
|
Includes Kanto earthquake prefectures† | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | No | No | No |
Includes Hokkaido outlier | Yes | Yes | No | No | Yes | Yes | No | No |
Includes 1918 population count data | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No | Yes | No |
Intercept, γ00 | 13.6053‡ | 13.5971‡ | 13.6137‡ | 13.6059‡ | 13.5755‡ | 13.5673‡ | 13.5839‡ | 13.5762‡ |
0.0523 | 0.0526 | 0.0528 | 0.0530 | 0.0537 | 0.0539 | 0.0543 | 0.0545 | |
Time trend, γ10 | 0.0106‡ | 0.0113‡ | 0.0097‡ | 0.0104‡ | 0.0100‡ | 0.0107‡ | 0.0091‡ | 0.0097‡ |
0.0012 | 0.0012 | 0.0009 | 0.0008 | 0.0012 | 0.0012 | 0.0008 | 0.0008 | |
Flu dummy, γ20 | –0.0355‡ | –0.0464‡ | –0.0373‡ | –0.0476‡ | –0.0379‡ | –0.0486‡ | –0.0399‡ | –0.0501‡ |
0.0053 | 0.0060 | 0.0050 | 0.0060 | 0.0054 | 0.0062 | 0.0051 | 0.0062 | |
Flu dummy × time trend, γ30 | 0.0002 | –0.0005 | 0.0009 | 0.0002 | –0.0002 | –0.0009 | 0.0005 | –0.0001 |
0.0009 | 0.0009 | 0.0006 | 0.0006 | 0.0009 | 0.0010 | 0.0006 | 0.0006 | |
No. observations | 423 | 376 | 414 | 368 | 387 | 344 | 378 | 336 |
Hausman test statistic | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 |
p>0.9999 | p>0.9999 | p>0.9999 | p>0.9999 | p>0.9999 | p>0.9999 | p>0.9999 | p>0.9999 | |
Breusch-Pagan test statistic | 1525.90 | 1171.30 | 1535.75 | 1183.05 | 1403.42 | 1078.01 | 1422.01 | 1097.53 |
p<0.0001 | p<0.0001 | pp<0.0001 | p<0.0001 | <0.0001 | p<0.0001 | p<0.0001 | p<0.0001 | |
Population change from Influenza, millions | –1.49 | –2.02 | –1.59 | –2.05 | –1.52 | –1.98 | –1.62 | –2.01 |
Population change from Influenza, % | –2.72 | –3.71 | –3.03 | –3.92 | –3.23 | –4.23 | –3.62 | –4.50 |
Population change, 1918 to 1919, millions | –0.75 | –1.25 | –0.96 | –1.39 | –0.93 | –1.37 | –1.14 | –1.51 |
Population change, 1918 to 1919, % | –1.35 | –2.26 | –1.81 | –2.63 | –1.96 | –2.88 | –2.53 | –3.34 |
Annual population growth rate to pandemic, % | 1.06 | 1.13 | 0.97 | 1.04 | 1.00 | 1.07 | 0.91 | 0.97 |
Annual population growth rate after pandemic, % | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.06 | 1.06 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 0.96 | 0.96 |
*Italics indicate SE of the coefficient.
†Chiba, Kanagawa, Shizuoka, Tokyo.
‡p<0.01.