Skip directly to site content Skip directly to page options Skip directly to A-Z link Skip directly to A-Z link Skip directly to A-Z link
Volume 19, Number 6—June 2013
Research

Transmission Potential of Rift Valley Fever Virus over the Course of the 2010 Epidemic in South Africa

Raphaëlle MétrasComments to Author , Marc Baguelin, W. John Edmunds, Peter N. Thompson, Alan Kemp, Dirk U. Pfeiffer, Lisa M. Collins, and Richard G. White
Author affiliations: Royal Veterinary College, Hatfield, UK (R. Métras, D.U. Pfeiffer); London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK (R. Métras, M. Baguelin, W.J. Edmunds, R.G. White); Health Protection Agency, London (M. Baguelin); University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa (P.N. Thompson); National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Sandringham, South Africa (A. Kemp); Queen’s University Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland, UK (L.M. Collins)

Main Article

Figure 3

Distribution of D0 by time and distance [D0(s,t)]. D0(s,t) is a measure of spatiotemporal interaction between cases that was estimated by using the space–time K-function (19,20); the distribution is indicated by the pink dashed line. The green, yellow, and blue lines are the smoothed distributions, which were obtained with bandwidth values of 1, 3, and 5, respectively. A) Plot of D0(s,t) values by distance on day 1. B) D0(s,t) values by time at distance of 5 km. C) Plot of D0(s,t) values by dist

Figure 3. . Distribution of D0 by time and distance [D0(s,t)]. D0(s,t) is a measure of spatiotemporal interaction between cases that was estimated by using the space–time K-function (19,20); the distribution is indicated by the pink dashed line. The green, yellow, and blue lines are the smoothed distributions, which were obtained with bandwidth values of 1, 3, and 5, respectively. A) Plot of D0(s,t) values by distance on day 1. B) D0(s,t) values by time at distance of 5 km. C) Plot of D0(s,t) values by distance on day 5. D) D0(s,t) values by time at distance of 15 km.

Main Article

References
  1. Pepin  M, Bouloy  M, Bird  BH, Kemp  A, Paweska  J. Rift Valley fever virus (Bunyaviridae: Phlebovirus): an update on pathogenesis, molecular epidemiology, vectors, diagnostics and prevention. Vet Res. 2010;41:61 and. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  2. Bird  BH, Ksiazek  TG, Nichol  ST, Maclachlan  NJ. Rift Valley fever virus. J Am Vet Med Assoc. 2009;234:883–93 and. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  3. Linthicum  KJ, Anyamba  A, Tucker  CJ, Kelley  PW, Myers  MF, Peters  CJ. Climate and satellite indicators to forecast Rift Valley fever epidemics in Kenya. Science. 1999;285:397–400 and. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  4. Anyamba  A, Chretien  JP, Small  J, Tucker  CJ, Formenty  PB, Richardson  JH, Prediction of a Rift Valley fever outbreak. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2009;106:955–9 and. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  5. Logan  TM, Linthicum  KJ, Thande  PC, Wagateh  JN, Nelson  GO, Roberts  CR. Egg hatching of Aedes mosquitoes during successive floodings in a Rift Valley fever endemic area in Kenya. J Am Mosq Control Assoc. 1991;7:109–12 .PubMedGoogle Scholar
  6. Fontenille  D, Traore-Lamizana  M, Diallo  M, Thonnon  J, Digoutte  JP, Zeller  HG. New vectors of Rift Valley fever in West Africa. Emerg Infect Dis. 1998;4:289–93 and. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  7. Alexander  RA. Rift Valley fever in the Union. J S Afr Vet Med Assoc. 1951;22:105–9.
  8. Coetzer  JA. The pathology of Rift Valley fever. I. Lesions occurring in natural cases in new-born lambs. Onderstepoort J Vet Res. 1977;44:205–11 .PubMedGoogle Scholar
  9. World Organisation for Animal Health. Rift Valley fever. Follow-up report no. 17. Report reference: Free State Bultfontein, OIE ref: 9982, report date: 2010 Nov 29, country: South Africa [cited 2011 Oct 17]. http://web.oie.int/wahis/reports/en_fup_0000009982_20101129_173322.pdf
  10. World Organisation for Animal Health. Rift Valley fever. Follow-up report no. 14, ref: 11073, report date: 2011 Sep 28, country: South Africa. 2011 [cited 2011 Oct 17]. http://web.oie.int/wahis/reports/en_fup_0000011073_20110929_143957.pdf
  11. World Organisation for Animal Health. Immediate notification report. Report reference: Free State Bultfontein, ref OIE: 8967, report date: 2010 Feb 19, country: South Africa. 2010 [cited 2012 May 18]. http://www.cnmsf.gob.do/Portals/0/docs/Textos%20Variados/Fiebre%20del%20Valle%20del%20Rift,%20Sud%C3%A1frica.pdf
  12. News 24. Rift Valley fever—South Africa (02): (Free State). ProMed; 2010 Mar 16 [cited 2011 Oct 17]. http://www.promedmail.org, archive no. 20100316.0845.
  13. AllAfrica.com. Rift Valley fever—South Africa (09): multi-province. ProMed; 2010 Apr 7 [cited 2011 Oct 17]. http://www.promedmail.org, archive no. 20100407.1119.
  14. World Organisation for Animal Health. Rift Valley fever, South Africa. Follow-up report no. 10, ref: 9305, report date: 2010 Apr 25, country: South Africa. 2010 [cited 2012 Oct 31] http://www.oie.int/wahis_2/public/wahid.php/Reviewreport/Review?reportid=9305
  15. Vynnycky  E, White  RG. An introduction to infectious disease modelling. Oxford (UK): Oxford University Press; 2010.
  16. Lipsitch  M, Cohen  T, Cooper  B, Robins  JM, Ma  S, James  L, Transmission dynamics and control of severe acute respiratory syndrome. Science. 2003;300:1966–70 and. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  17. Wallinga  J, Teunis  P. Different epidemic curves for severe acute respiratory syndrome reveal similar impacts of control measures. Am J Epidemiol. 2004;160:509–16 and. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  18. Wallinga  J, Lipsitch  M. How generation intervals shape the relationship between growth rates and reproductive numbers. Proc Biol Sci. 2007;274:599–604 and. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  19. Métras  R, Porphyre  T, Pfeiffer  DU, Kemp  A, Thompson  PN, Collins  LM, Exploratory space–time analyses of Rift Valley fever in South Africa in 2008–2011. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2012 2012;6:e1808. PubMedGoogle Scholar
  20. Diggle  PJ, Chetwynd  AG, Haggkvist  R, Morris  SE. Second-order analysis of space–time clustering. Stat Methods Med Res. 1995;4:124–36 and. DOIPubMedGoogle Scholar
  21. Onderstepoort Biological Products Limited. Annual Report. 2010 [cited 2012 Sept 30]. http://www.obpvaccines.co.za/Cms_Data/Contents/OBPDB/Media/downloads/OBP%20Annual%20Report.pdf
  22. von Teichman  BF, Louw  I, Engelbrecht  A, Heath  JA, Smit  TK. Onderstepoort Rift Valley fever virus vaccines. In: Proceedings of the 9th annual congress of the Southern African Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine; Pretoria, South Africa; 2010 Aug 18–20; 25–31.
  23. R Development Core Team. R: a language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna (Austria): R Foundation for Statistical Computing; 2012.
  24. Furrer  R, Nychka  D, Sain  S. fields: tools for spatial data. R package version 6.6.2. 2011. http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=fields
  25. McIntosh  BM, Jupp  PG. Epidemiological aspects of Rift Valley fever in South Africa with reference to vectors. Contr. Epidem. Biostatist. 1981;3:92–9.
  26. Jupp  PG, Kemp  A. Studies on an outbreak of Wesselsbron virus in the Free State Province, South Africa. J Am Mosq Control Assoc. 1998;14:40–5 .PubMedGoogle Scholar
  27. Brubaker  JF, Turell  MJ. Effect of environmental temperature on the susceptibility of Culex pipiens (Diptera: Culicidae) to Rift Valley fever virus. J Med Entomol. 1998;35:918–21 .PubMedGoogle Scholar
  28. Turell  MJ, Rossi  CA, Bailey  CL. Effect of extrinsic incubation temperature on the ability of Aedes taeniorhynchus and Culex pipiens to transmit Rift Valley fever virus. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 1985;34:1211–8 .PubMedGoogle Scholar
  29. World Organisation for Animal Health. Follow-up report no. 3. Ref: 8937, report date: 08/02/2010 Feb 8, country: South Africa. 2010 [cited 2010 Aug 10]. http://web.oie.int/wahis/reports/en_fup_0000008937_20100208_164327.pdf
  30. World Organisation for Animal Health. Follow-up report no. 6. Ref: 8397, report date: 27/08/2009 Aug 27, country: South Africa. 2009 [cited 2010 Sept 10]. http://web.oie.int/wahis/reports/en_fup_0000008397_20090827_173721.pdf

Main Article

Page created: May 20, 2013
Page updated: May 20, 2013
Page reviewed: May 20, 2013
The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.
file_external