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Volume 19, Number 6—June 2013


Transmission Potential of Rift Valley Fever Virus over the Course of the 2010 Epidemic in South Africa

Raphaëlle MétrasComments to Author , Marc Baguelin, W. John Edmunds, Peter N. Thompson, Alan Kemp, Dirk U. Pfeiffer, Lisa M. Collins, and Richard G. White
Author affiliations: Royal Veterinary College, Hatfield, UK (R. Métras, D.U. Pfeiffer); London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK (R. Métras, M. Baguelin, W.J. Edmunds, R.G. White); Health Protection Agency, London (M. Baguelin); University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa (P.N. Thompson); National Institute for Communicable Diseases, Sandringham, South Africa (A. Kemp); Queen’s University Belfast, Belfast, Northern Ireland, UK (L.M. Collins)

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Table 2

Estimated vaccination coverage, under 3 different scenarios, during an epidemic of Rift Valley fever in 2 provinces in South Africa, 2010*

Scenario % Vaccine coverage
Free State Province
Northern Cape Province
March 31 May 31 March 31 May 31
A 7.5 20.4 7.5 20.4
B 28.2 49.4 11.0 39.6
C 45.7 >100.0 0 0† (24.3‡)

          *Scenario A assumed that vaccination coverage was applied throughout South Africa in proportion to the livestock population; Scenario B assumed that the number of vaccines used in a province over a specific period was proportional to the number of cases reported in that province over that same period; Scenario C assumed that all vaccines were used in Free State Province during Periods 2 (January 19–March 31, 2010) and 3 (April 1–May 31, 2010) and that no vaccine had been used before the epidemic (Period 1, April 1, 2009–January 18, 2010).
          †Assumes that all vaccines are used in Free State.
‡Assumes that spillover vaccines from Free State were used in Northern Cape.

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