Simulation Study of the Effect of Influenza and Influenza Vaccination on Risk of Acquiring Guillain-Barré Syndrome
Steven Hawken, Jeffrey C. Kwong, Shelley L. Deeks, Natasha S. Crowcroft, Allison McGeer, Robin Ducharme, Michael A. Campitelli, Doug Coyle, and Kumanan Wilson
Author affiliations: Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, Toronto, Ontario, Canada (S. Hawken, J.C. Kwong, R. Ducharme, M.A. Campitelli, K. Wilson); Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada (S. Hawken, R. Ducharme, K. Wilson); University of Ottawa, Ottawa (S. Hawken, D. Coyle, K. Wilson); Public Health Ontario, Toronto (J.C. Kwong, S.L. Deeks, N.S. Crowcroft); Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto (J.C. Kwong, S.L. Deeks, N.S. Crowcroft, A.J. McGeer); University of Toronto, Toronto (J.C. Kwong, N.S. Crowcroft, A.J. McGeer)
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Figure 3
Figure 3. Excess risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) per 1,000,000 influenza vaccinations by influenza incidence rate, age, and vaccine effectiveness for both sexes combined. A) Risk for persons <18 years of age; vaccine effectiveness of 40%–80%. B) Risk for persons 45 years of age; vaccine effectiveness of 40%–80%. C) Risk for persons 60 years of age; vaccine effectiveness of 20%–80%. D) Risk for persons 75 years of age; vaccine effectiveness of 20%–80%. Depending on the joint distribution of the probabilistic inputs to the simulation model, these deterministic sensitivity analyses will not necessarily yield identical mean/median estimates to those from the probabilistic simulation for the same age, sex, and influenza incidence rate.
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