Volume 21, Number 3—March 2015
Evaluation of the Benefits and Risks of Introducing Ebola Community Care Centers, Sierra Leone
|Mean time from symptom onset to outcome|
|Ebola virus–positive patients||9.5 d||(4)|
|Ebola virus–negative patients
|Mean time from symptom onset to admission|
|To ETC||4.6 d||(4)|
|Mean time from exposure to symptom onset (latent period)
|Proportion of patients with Ebola-like symptoms in Western Area who are Ebola-positive||50.0%||(1)|
|Population of Western Area
|Probability that an Ebola virus–negative patient seeking care in CCC will be exposed to Ebola virus||Varies†||NA|
|Reduction in transmission from infected patients to the community as a result of being in CCC
|Basic reproduction no. (95% CrI)‡||1.94 (1.86–1.98)||Estimated|
|No. infectious persons on August 16, 2014 (95% CrI)§||51 (39.0–57.0)||Estimated|
|Proportion of cases in Western Area reported in Sierra Leone Ministry of Health situation reports (95% CrI)||0.42 (0.33–0.46)||Estimated|
|Variability in accuracy of reports, define as standard deviation of proportion of cases reported (95% CrI)||0.014 (0.010–0.024)||Estimated|
*CCC, Ebola community care center; CrI, credible interval; ETC, Ebola treatment center; NA, not applicable.
†In the analysis, the full range of possible values for these parameters is tested.
‡Basic reproduction number refers to the average number of secondary cases generated by a typical infectious patient at the start of an epidemic
§This parameter represents the initial no. of infectious patients at the start of the model simulation. Additional information is available at https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B_BzCqSK1DZaYnRoeWtHOTU2TVk/.