Volume 21, Number 8—August 2015
Research
Development of Framework for Assessing Influenza Virus Pandemic Risk
Susan C. Trock
, Stephen A. Burke, and Nancy J. Cox
, Stephen A. Burke, and Nancy J. Cox
Table 2
Risk scores and ranked weighting applied to 3 influenza viruses for the question “What is the risk that a virus not currently circulating in the human population has potential for sustained human-to-human transmission?”*
| Element | Wt | HPAI H5N1 clade 1 (A/VN/1203/2004) |
North American mallard influenza A(H1N1) (A/duck/NewYork/1996) |
Variant H3N2 (A/Indiana/08/2011) |
||||||
| RS |
Wt x RS |
RS |
Wt x RS |
RS |
Wt x RS |
|||||
| Human infection | 0.2929 | 5.67 | 1.66 | 2.33 | 0.68 | 4.33 | 1.27 | |||
| Transmission (laboratory animals) | 0.1929 | 3.00 | 0.58 | 2.00 | 0.39 | 9.00 | 1.74 | |||
| Receptor binding | 0.1429 | 3.30 | 0.47 | 2.00 | 0.29 | 8.30 | 1.19 | |||
| Population immunity | 0.1096 | 8.67 | 0.95 | 3.00 | 0.33 | 3.67 | 0.40 | |||
| Infection in animals | 0.0846 | 7.25 | 0.61 | 2.00 | 0.17 | 8.00 | 0.68 | |||
| Genomic variation | 0.0646 | 4.00 | 0.26 | 3.00 | 0.19 | 8.00 | 0.52 | |||
| Antigenic relationship | 0.0479 | 6.00 | 0.29 | 2.00 | 0.10 | 8.00 | 0.38 | |||
| Global distribution (animals) | 0.0336 | 5.50 | 0.18 | 2.50 | 0.08 | 7.00 | 0.24 | |||
| Disease severity | 0.0211 | 8.50 | 0.18 | 2.25 | 0.05 | 6.00 | 0.13 | |||
| Antiviral/treatment options | 0.0010 | 4.50 | 0.00 | 2.25 | 0.00 | 2.50 | 0.00 | |||
| Total | 1.0000 | 5.18 | 2.28 | 6.55 | ||||||
*Wt, weight; HPAI, highly pathogenic avian influenza; RS, risk score. Weights are expressed to 4 decimal places because of the convention that the sum must be exactly 1. Sums for viruses may not be exact due to rounding.
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