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Volume 21, Number 8—August 2015
Research

Development of Framework for Assessing Influenza Virus Pandemic Risk

Susan C. TrockComments to Author , Stephen A. Burke, and Nancy J. Cox
Author affiliations: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA (S.C. Trock, S.A. Burke, N.J. Cox); Battelle, Atlanta (S.A. Burke)

Main Article

Table 2

Risk scores and ranked weighting applied to 3 influenza viruses for the question “What is the risk that a virus not currently circulating in the human population has potential for sustained human-to-human transmission?”*

Element Wt HPAI H5N1 clade 1 (A/VN/1203/2004)
North American mallard influenza A(H1N1) (A/duck/NewYork/1996)
Variant H3N2 (A/Indiana/08/2011)
RS
Wt x RS
RS
Wt x RS
RS
Wt x RS
Human infection 0.2929 5.67 1.66 2.33 0.68 4.33 1.27
Transmission (laboratory animals) 0.1929 3.00 0.58 2.00 0.39 9.00 1.74
Receptor binding 0.1429 3.30 0.47 2.00 0.29 8.30 1.19
Population immunity 0.1096 8.67 0.95 3.00 0.33 3.67 0.40
Infection in animals 0.0846 7.25 0.61 2.00 0.17 8.00 0.68
Genomic variation 0.0646 4.00 0.26 3.00 0.19 8.00 0.52
Antigenic relationship 0.0479 6.00 0.29 2.00 0.10 8.00 0.38
Global distribution (animals) 0.0336 5.50 0.18 2.50 0.08 7.00 0.24
Disease severity 0.0211 8.50 0.18 2.25 0.05 6.00 0.13
Antiviral/treatment options 0.0010 4.50 0.00 2.25 0.00 2.50 0.00
Total 1.0000 5.18 2.28 6.55

*Wt, weight; HPAI, highly pathogenic avian influenza; RS, risk score. Weights are expressed to 4 decimal places because of the convention that the sum must be exactly 1. Sums for viruses may not be exact due to rounding.

Main Article

Page created: July 14, 2015
Page updated: July 14, 2015
Page reviewed: July 14, 2015
The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.
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