The growing field of digital disease detection, or epidemic intelligence, attempts to improve timely detection and awareness of infectious disease (ID) events. Early detection remains an important priority; thus, the next frontier for ID surveillance is to improve the recognition and monitoring of drivers (antecedent conditions) of ID emergence for signals that precede disease events. These data could help alert public health officials to indicators of elevated ID risk, thereby triggering targeted active surveillance and interventions. We believe that ID emergence risks can be anticipated through surveillance of their drivers, just as successful warning systems of climate-based, meteorologically sensitive diseases are supported by improved temperature and precipitation data. We present approaches to driver surveillance, gaps in the current literature, and a scientific framework for the creation of a digital warning system. Fulfilling the promise of driver surveillance will require concerted action to expand the collection of appropriate digital driver data.

Infections with the Shiga toxin–producing bacterium Escherichia coli O157 can cause severe illness and death. We summarized reported outbreaks of E. coli O157 infections in the United States during 2003–2012, including demographic characteristics of patients and epidemiologic findings by transmission mode and food category. We identified 390 outbreaks, which included 4,928 illnesses, 1,272 hospitalizations, and 33 deaths. Transmission was through food (255 outbreaks, 65%), person-to-person contact (39, 10%), indirect or direct contact with animals (39, 10%), and water (15, 4%); 42 (11%) had a different or unknown mode of transmission. Beef and leafy vegetables, combined, were the source of >25% of all reported E. coli outbreaks and of >40% of related illnesses. Outbreaks attributed to foods generally consumed raw caused higher hospitalization rates than those attributed to foods generally consumed cooked (35% vs. 28%). Most (87%) waterborne E. coli outbreaks occurred in states bordering the Mississippi River.

Infectious diseases are a major threat to humanity, and accurate surveillance is essential. We describe how to implement a laboratory data–based surveillance system in a clinical microbiology laboratory. Two historical Microsoft Excel databases were implemented. The data were then sorted and used to execute the following 2 surveillance systems in Excel: the Bacterial real-time Laboratory-based Surveillance System (BALYSES) for monitoring the number of patients infected with bacterial species isolated at least once in our laboratory during the study periodl and the Marseille Antibiotic Resistance Surveillance System (MARSS), which surveys the primary β-lactam resistance phenotypes for 15 selected bacterial species. The first historical database contained 174,853 identifications of bacteria, and the second contained 12,062 results of antibiotic susceptibility testing. From May 21, 2013, through June 4, 2014, BALYSES and MARSS enabled the detection of 52 abnormal events for 24 bacterial species, leading to 19 official reports. This system is currently being refined and improved.

During the 2013 dengue epidemic in Luanda, Angola, 811 dengue rapid diagnostic test–positive cases were reported to the Ministry of Health. To better understand the magnitude of the epidemic and identify risk factors for dengue virus (DENV) infection, we conducted cluster surveys around households of case-patients and randomly selected households 6 weeks after the peak of the epidemic. Of 173 case cluster participants, 16 (9%) exhibited evidence of recent DENV infection. Of 247 random cluster participants, 25 (10%) had evidence of recent DENV infection. Of 13 recently infected participants who had a recent febrile illness, 7 (54%) had sought medical care, and 1 (14%) was hospitalized with symptoms consistent with severe dengue; however, none received a diagnosis of dengue. Behavior associated with protection from DENV infection included recent use of mosquito repellent or a bed net. These findings suggest that the 2013 dengue epidemic was larger than indicated by passive surveillance data.

Health care services are increasingly delivered in outpatient settings. However, infection control oversight in outpatient settings to ensure patient safety has not improved and literature quantifying reported health care–associated infection outbreaks in outpatient settings is scarce. The objective of this analysis was to characterize investigations of suspected and confirmed outbreaks in outpatient settings in Los Angeles County, California, USA, reported during 2000–2012, by using internal logs; publications; records; and correspondence of outbreak investigations by characteristics of the setting, number, and type of infection control breaches found during investigations, outcomes of cases, and public health responses. Twenty-eight investigations met the inclusion criteria. Investigations occurred frequently, in diverse settings, and required substantial public health resources. Most outpatient settings investigated had >1 infection control breach. Lapses in infection control were suspected to be the outbreak source for 16 of the reviewed investigations.

Differentiating acute Q fever from infections caused by other pathogens is essential. We conducted a retrospective case–control study to evaluate differences in clinical signs, symptoms, and outcomes for 82 patients with acute Q fever and 52 control patients who had pneumonia, fever and lower respiratory tract symptoms, or fever and hepatitis, but had negative serologic results for Q fever. Patients with acute Q fever were younger and had higher C-reactive protein levels but lower leukocyte counts. However, a large overlap was found. In patients with an indication for prophylaxis, chronic Q fever did not develop after patients received prophylaxis but did develop in 50% of patients who did not receive prophylaxis. Differentiating acute Q fever from other respiratory infections, fever, or hepatitis is not possible without serologic testing or PCR. If risk factors for chronic Q fever are present, prophylactic treatment is advised.

In September 2012, the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene identified an outbreak of Neisseria meningitidis serogroup C invasive meningococcal disease among men who have sex with men (MSM). Twenty-two case-patients and 7 deaths were identified during August 2010−February 2013. During this period, 7 cases in non-MSM were diagnosed. The slow-moving outbreak was linked to the use of websites and mobile phone applications that connect men with male sexual partners, which complicated the epidemiologic investigation and prevention efforts. We describe the outbreak and steps taken to interrupt transmission, including an innovative and wide-ranging outreach campaign that involved direct, internet-based, and media-based communications; free vaccination events; and engagement of community and government partners. We conclude by discussing the challenges of managing an outbreak affecting a discrete community of MSM and the benefits of using social networking technology to reach this at-risk population.

Increasing evidence indicates that the risk of acquiring tuberculosis (TB) and nontuberculous mycobacterial disease is elevated among patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). To determine the epidemiology of mycobacterial diseases among RA patients in Asia, we conducted a retrospective cohort study. We used a nationwide database to investigate the association of RA with mycobacterial diseases. The risk for development of TB or nontuberculous mycobacterial disease was 2.28-fold and 6.24-fold higher among RA patients than among the general population, respectively. Among RA patients, risk for development of mycobacterial disease was higher among those who were older, male, or both. Furthermore, among RA patients with mycobacterial infections, the risk for death was increased. Therefore, RA patients, especially those with other risk factors, should be closely monitored for development of mycobacterial disease.

It remains unclear whether lineages of influenza A(H3N2) virus can persist in the tropics and seed temperate areas. We used viral gene sequence data sampled from Peru to test this source–sink model for a Latin American country. Viruses were obtained during 2010–2012 from influenza surveillance cohorts in Cusco, Tumbes, Puerto Maldonado, and Lima. Specimens positive for influenza A(H3N2) virus were randomly selected and underwent hemagglutinin sequencing and phylogeographic analyses. Analysis of 389 hemagglutinin sequences from Peru and 2,192 global sequences demonstrated interseasonal extinction of Peruvian lineages. Extensive mixing occurred with global clades, but some spatial structure was observed at all sites; this structure was weakest in Lima and Puerto Maldonado, indicating that these locations may experience greater viral traffic. The broad diversity and co-circulation of many simultaneous lineages of H3N2 virus in Peru suggests that this country should not be overlooked as a potential source for novel pandemic strains.

West Nile virus (WNV) outbreaks in North America have been characterized by substantial die-offs of American crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos). In contrast, a low incidence of bird deaths has been observed during WNV epidemic activity in Europe. To examine the susceptibility of the western European counterpart of American crows, we inoculated carrion crows (Corvus corone) with WNV strains isolated in Greece (Gr-10), Italy (FIN and Ita09), and Hungary (578/10) and with the highly virulent North American genotype strain (NY99). We also inoculated American crows with a selection of these strains to examine the strains’ virulence in a highly susceptible bird species. Infection with all strains, except WNV FIN, resulted in high rates of death and high-level viremia in both bird species and virus dissemination to several organs. These results suggest that carrion crows are highly susceptible to WNV and may potentially be useful as part of dead bird surveillance for early warning of WNV activity in Europe.

To inform epidemic response strategies for the African meningitis belt after a meningococcal serogroup A conjugate vaccine was introduced in 2010, we compared the effectiveness and efficiency of meningitis surveillance and vaccine response strategies at district and health area levels using various thresholds of weekly incidence rates. We analyzed reports of suspected cases from 3 regions in Niger during 2002–2012 (154,392 health area weeks), simulating elimination of serogroup A meningitis by excluding health area years with identification of such cases. Effectiveness was highest for health area surveillance and district vaccination (58–366 cases; thresholds 7–20 cases/100,000 doses), whereas efficiency was optimized with health area vaccination (5.6–7.7 cases/100,000 doses). District-level intervention prevented <6 cases (0.2 cases/100,000 doses). Reducing the delay between epidemic signal and vaccine protection by 2 weeks doubled efficiency. Subdistrict surveillance and response might be most appropriate for meningitis epidemic response after elimination of serogroup A meningitis.

The evolutionary origins of the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus that caused the first outbreak of the 2009 pandemic in Mexico remain unclear, highlighting the lack of swine surveillance in Latin American countries. Although Brazil has one of the largest swine populations in the world, influenza was not thought to be endemic in Brazil’s swine until the major outbreaks of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in 2009. Through phylogenetic analysis of whole-genome sequences of influenza viruses of the H1N1, H1N2, and H3N2 subtypes collected in swine in Brazil during 2009–2012, we identified multiple previously uncharacterized influenza viruses of human seasonal H1N2 and H3N2 virus origin that have circulated undetected in swine for more than a decade. Viral diversity has further increased in Brazil through reassortment between co-circulating viruses, including A(H1N1)pdm09. The circulation of multiple divergent hemagglutinin lineages challenges the design of effective cross-protective vaccines and highlights the need for additional surveillance.

Since 2010, reports of infection with hepatitis E virus (HEV) have increased in England and Wales. Despite mounting evidence regarding the zoonotic potential of porcine HEV, there are limited data on its prevalence in pigs in the United Kingdom. We investigated antibody prevalence, active infection, and virus variation in serum and cecal content samples from 629 pigs at slaughter. Prevalence of antibodies to HEV was 92.8% (584/629), and HEV RNA was detected in 15% of cecal contents (93/629), 3% of plasma samples (22/629), and 2% of both (14/629). However, although HEV is prevalent in pigs in the United Kingdom and viremic pigs are entering the food chain, most (22/23) viral sequences clustered separately from the dominant type seen in humans. Thus, pigs raised in the United Kingdom are unlikely to be the main source of human HEV infections in the United Kingdom. Further research is needed to identify the source of these infections.

Testing patients for respiratory viruses should guide isolation precautions and provide a rationale for antimicrobial drug therapies, but few studies have evaluated these assumptions. To determine the association between viral testing, patient outcomes, and care processes, we identified adults hospitalized with respiratory symptoms from 2004 through 2012 at a large, academic, tertiary hospital in Canada. Viral testing was performed in 11% (2,722/24,567) of hospital admissions and was not associated with reduced odds for death (odds ratio 0.90, 95% CI 0.76–1.10) or longer length of stay (+1 day for those tested). Viral testing resulted in more resource utilization, including intensive care unit admission, but positive test results were not associated with less antibiotic use or shorter duration of isolation. Results suggest that health care providers do not use viral test results in making management decisions at this hospital. Further research is needed to evaluate the effectiveness of respiratory infection control policies.

Although predicting which influenza virus subtype will cause the next pandemic is not yet possible, public health authorities must continually assess the pandemic risk associated with animal influenza viruses, particularly those that have caused infections in humans, and determine what resources should be dedicated to mitigating that risk. To accomplish this goal, a risk assessment framework was created in collaboration with an international group of influenza experts. Compared with the previously used approach, this framework, named the Influenza Risk Assessment Tool, provides a systematic and transparent approach for assessing and comparing threats posed primarily by avian and swine influenza viruses. This tool will be useful to the international influenza community and will remain flexible and responsive to changing information.

While the ongoing Ebola outbreak continues in the West Africa countries of Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia, health officials elsewhere prepare for new introductions of Ebola from infected evacuees or travelers. We analyzed transmission data from patients (i.e., evacuees, international travelers, and those with locally acquired illness) in countries other than the 3 with continuing Ebola epidemics and quantitatively assessed the outbreak risk from new introductions by using different assumptions for transmission control (i.e., immediate and delayed). Results showed that, even in countries that can quickly limit expected number of transmissions per case to <1, the probability that a single introduction will lead to a substantial number of transmissions is not negligible, particularly if transmission variability is high. Identifying incoming infected travelers before symptom onset can decrease worst-case outbreak sizes more than reducing transmissions from patients with locally acquired cases, but performing both actions can have a synergistic effect.

We report a measles outbreak in Sardinia, Italy, that originated in a cruise ship passenger. The outbreak showed extensive nosocomial transmission (44 of 80 cases). To minimize nosocomial transmission, health care facilities should ensure that susceptible health care workers are vaccinated against measles and should implement effective infection control procedures.

To evaluate the need to revaccinate laboratory workers against smallpox, we assessed regular revaccination at the US Laboratory Response Network’s variola testing sites by examining barriers to revaccination and the potential for persistence of immunity. Our data do not provide evidence to suggest prolonging the recommended interval for revaccination.

The prevalence of Candidatus Neoehrlichia mikurensis infection was determined in 102 persons bitten by ticks in Sweden. Two infected women had erythematous rashes; 1 was co-infected with a Borrelia sp., and the other showed seroconversion for Anaplasma phagocytophilum. Both patients had increased levels of Neoehrlichia DNA and serum cytokines for several months.

We determined the presence of neutralizing antibodies to Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in persons in Qatar with and without dromedary contact. Antibodies were only detected in those with contact, suggesting dromedary exposure as a risk factor for infection. Findings also showed evidence for substantial underestimation of the infection in populations at risk in Qatar.

To determine whether the norovirus strain GII.17 recently detected in Maryland, USA, (Hu/GII.17/Gaithersburg/2014/US) is spreading globally, we characterized the genome. High similarity with the norovirus GII.17 that caused recent outbreaks in Asia indicates that the same strain was present in the United States during the 2014–15 norovirus season (winter).

To determine when risk for Buruli ulcer is highest, we examined seasonal patterns in a highly disease-endemic area of Cameroon during 2002–2012. Cases peaked in March, suggesting that risk is highest during the high rainy season. During and after this season, populations should increase protective behaviors, and case detection efforts should be intensified.

Because some bats host viruses with zoonotic potential, we investigated human–bat interactions in rural Ghana during 2011–2012. Nearly half (46.6%) of respondents regularly visited bat caves; 37.4% had been bitten, scratched, or exposed to bat urine; and 45.6% ate bat meat. Human–bat interactions in rural Ghana are frequent and diverse.

Seventy-eight cases of enterovirus infection, including 25 neuroinfections, occurred in Rostov-on-Don, Russia, during May–June 2013. The outbreak was caused by an enterovirus A type 71 (EV-A71) subgenotype C4 lineage that spread to neighboring countries from China ≈3 years earlier. Enterovirus associated neuroinfection may emerge in areas with a preceding background circulation of EV-A71 with apparently asymptomatic infection.

Vesiviruses have been detected in several animal species and as accidental contaminants of cells. We detected vesiviruses in asymptomatic kennel dogs (64.8%) and symptomatic (1.1%) and asymptomatic (3.5%) household dogs in Italy. The full-length genome of 1 strain, Bari/212/07/ITA, shared 89%–90% nt identity with vesiviruses previously detected in contaminated cells.

In Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR TB) was diagnosed for more than a third of new sputum smear–positive tuberculosis patients for whom treatment had failed. This finding suggests a significant risk for community-acquired MDR TB and a need to make rapid molecular drug susceptibility testing available to more people.

Most exposures of residents of Marseille to nonhuman primates occurred among unvaccinated adult travelers to Southeast Asia within the first 10 days of their arrival at 2 major tourist locations in Thailand and 1 in Indonesia. A small proportion of travelers received rabies immunoglobulin in the country of exposure.

We report a rare case of cutaneous Legionella longbeachae infection in a patient receiving long-term corticosteroids for immune thrombocytopenia. Such infections cannot be identified by using Legionella urinary antigen testing but are commonly seen after exposure to commercial potting compost, particularly in immunocompromised patients.

Findings among a cohort of 26 patients who had hematologic malignancies and hepatitis E virus (HEV) infection support that HEV can induce chronic hepatitis. However, a 3-month course of ribavirin can induce a rapid viral clearance, reducing the risk for chronic hepatitis and enabling continuation of cytotoxic treatments for underlying malignancies.

To guide the collection of data under emergent epidemic conditions, we reviewed compartmental models of historical Ebola outbreaks to determine their implications and limitations. We identified future modeling directions and propose that the minimal epidemiologic dataset for Ebola model construction comprises duration of incubation period and symptomatic period, distribution of secondary cases by infection setting, and compliance with intervention recommendations.

Risk factors for illness during a serogroup C meningococcal disease outbreak among men who have sex with men in New York City, New York, USA, in 2012–2013 included methamphetamine and cocaine use and sexually transmitted infections. Outbreak investigations should consider routinely capturing information regarding drug use and sex-related risk factors.

Macrolide-resistant Mycoplasma pneumoniae (MRMP) is highly prevalent in Asia and is now being reported from Europe. Few data on MRMP are available in the United States. Using genotypic and phenotypic methods, we detected high-level MRMP in 13.2% of 91 M. pneumoniae­–positive specimens from 6 US locations.

We evaluated culture-negative, community-acquired endocarditis by using indirect immunofluorescent assays and molecular analyses for Bartonella spp. and Coxiella burnetii and found a prevalence of 19.6% and 7.8%, respectively. Our findings reinforce the need to study these organisms in patients with culture-negative, community-acquired endocarditis, especially B. henselae in cat owners.

A newly developed transcription-mediated amplification assay was used to detect chikungunya virus infection in 3 of 557 asymptomatic donors (0.54%) from Puerto Rico during the 2014–2015 Caribbean epidemic. Viral detection was confirmed by using PCR, microarray, and next-generation sequencing. Molecular clock analysis dated the emergence of the Puerto Rico strains to early 2013.

Lyme disease occurs in specific geographic regions of the United States. We present a method for defining high-risk counties based on observed versus expected number of reported human Lyme disease cases. Applying this method to successive periods shows substantial geographic expansion of counties at high risk for Lyme disease.

Building on the findings and recommendations of the Interagency Working Group on Scientific Collections, Scientific Collections International (SciColl) aims to improve the rapid access to science collections across disciplines within the federal government and globally, between government agencies and private research institutions. SciColl offered a novel opportunity for the US Department of Health and Human Services, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response, to explore the value of scientific research collections under the science preparedness initiative and integrate it as a research resource at each stage in the emergence of the infectious diseases cycle. Under the leadership of SciColl’s executive secretariat at the Smithsonian Institution, and with multiple federal and international partners, a workshop during October 2014 fully explored the intersections of the infectious disease cycle and the role scientific collections could play as an evidentiary scientific resource to mitigate risks associated with emerging infectious diseases.