Volume 21, Number 8—August 2015
Research
Development of Framework for Assessing Influenza Virus Pandemic Risk
Susan C. Trock
, Stephen A. Burke, and Nancy J. Cox
, Stephen A. Burke, and Nancy J. Cox
Table 3
Risk scores and ranked weighting applied to 3 influenza viruses for the question “If the virus were to achieve sustained human-to-human transmission, what is the risk that a virus not currently circulating in the human population has the potential for significant impact on public health?”*
| Element | Wt | HPAI H5N1 clade 1 (A/VN/1203/2004) |
North American mallard H1N1 (A/duck/NewYork/1996) |
Variant H3N2 (A/Indiana/08/2011) |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RS | Wt x RS | RS | Wt x RS | RS | Wt x RS | ||||
| Disease severity | 0.2929 | 8.50 | 2.49 | 2.25 | 0.66 | 6.00 | 1.76 | ||
| Population immunity | 0.1929 | 8.67 | 1.67 | 3.00 | 0.58 | 3.67 | 0.71 | ||
| Human infections | 0.1429 | 5.67 | 0.81 | 2.33 | 0.33 | 4.33 | 0.62 | ||
| Antiviral/treatment options | 0.1096 | 4.50 | 0.49 | 2.25 | 0.25 | 2.50 | 0.27 | ||
| Antigenic relatedness | 0.0846 | 6.00 | 0.51 | 2.00 | 0.17 | 8.00 | 0.68 | ||
| Receptor binding | 0.0646 | 3.30 | 0.21 | 2.00 | 0.13 | 8.30 | 0.54 | ||
| Genomic variation | 0.0479 | 4.00 | 0.19 | 3.00 | 0.14 | 8.00 | 0.38 | ||
| Transmission (laboratory animals) | 0.0336 | 3.00 | 0.10 | 2.00 | 0.07 | 9.00 | 0.30 | ||
| Global distribution (animals) | 0.0211 | 5.50 | 0.12 | 2.50 | 0.05 | 7.00 | 0.15 | ||
| Infections in animals | 0.0010 | 7.25 | 0.01 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 8.00 | 0.01 | ||
| Total | 1.0000 | 6.60 | 2.38 | 5.42 | |||||
*Wt, weight; HPAI, highly pathogenic avian influenza; RS, risk score. Weights are expressed to 4 decimal places because of the convention that the sum must be exactly 1. Sums for viruses may not be exact due to rounding.
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