Volume 21, Number 8—August 2015
Drivers of Emerging Infectious Disease Events as a Framework for Digital Detection
|Driver theme (references)||Global data examples†||Regional data examples†|
|Human susceptibility to infection (1,2,4)
||Vaccine rumor surveillance, product distribution data from manufacturers, self-reported immunization status
||US influenza vaccination rates, measles vaccination rates from the Mozambique Health Information System
|Climate and weather (1,2,4)
||Numerous satellite products, National Oceanic and Atmospheric; Administration, Climatic Research Unit, Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, vulnerability to climate change
||Climate data, social media reports of climate and air pollution effects on Twitter and Sina Weibo
|Human demographics and behavior (1,2,4)
||Night time lights, Gridded population of the world, mobile phone operator data
||National census data products, Twitter, world population
|Economic development (1,2,4)
||International Monetary Fund, World Bank
||National departments of economics
|Land use and ecosystem changes (1,2,4)
||Global agricultural lands, Center for International Earth Science Information Network, Global Forest Change 2000–2012, Global Forest Watch, global livestock distribution densities
||National departments of agriculture, croplands in western Africa, Africa mining digital news reports, IMAZON Deforestation Alert System
|Technology and industry (1,2,4)
||Digital news, United Nations Global Pulse
|Human wildlife interaction (2,4)
||Species distribution grids, digital news reports
||State-level hunting data
|Breakdown of public health measures (1,2,4)
||Natural disaster hotspots
||News of impending natural disasters (i.e., predicted hurricane landfall)
|Poverty and social inequality (1)
||Center for International Earth Science Information Network, Global Observatory
||National census data
|War and famine (1,2,4)
||Famine early warning system, digital news and social media
|Lack of political will (1)
||Historical records, Transparency International, Cline Center for Democracy
|International travel and commerce (1,2,4)||Flight and shipping data||Regional distribution data of food products|
*The table is purposely not exhaustive but provides a survey of types of available digital data that are associated with different drivers. NA, not applicable.
†See Technical Appendix Table for available references.
- Smolinski MS, Lederberg J, Hamburg MA, editors. Microbial threats to health: emergence, detection, and response. Washington (DC): The National Academies Press; 2003.
- Bogich TL, Chunara R, Scales D, Chan E, Pinheiro LC, Chmura AA, Preventing pandemics via international development: a systems approach. PLoS Med. 2012;9:e1001354.
- Daszak P, Cunningham A, Hyatt A. Anthropogenic environmental change and the emergence of infectious diseases in wildlife. Acta Trop. 2001;78:103–16.
- Jones KE, Patel NG, Levy MA, Storeygard A, Balk D, Gittleman JL, Global trends in emerging infectious diseases. Nature. 2008;451:990–3.
- Lederberg J, Shope RE, Oaks SC Jr. Emerging infections: microbial threats to health in the United States. Washington (DC): The National Academies Press; 1992.
- Myers SS, Gaffikin L, Golden CD, Ostfeld RS, Redford KH, Ricketts TH, Human health impacts of ecosystem alteration. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2013;110:18753–60.
- Patz JA, Daszak P, Tabor GM, Aguirre AA, Pearl M, Epstein J, Unhealthy landscapes: policy recommendations on land use change and infectious disease emergence. Environ Health Perspect. 2004;112:1092–8.
- Weiss RA, McMichael AJ. Social and environmental risk factors in the emergence of infectious diseases. Nat Med. 2004;10:S70–6.
- Snow J. On the mode of communication of cholera. 2nd edition. London: John Churchill; 1855.
- Lopez AD, Mathers CD, Ezzati M, Jamison DT, Murray CJ. Global and regional burden of disease and risk factors, 2001: systematic analysis of population health data. Lancet. 2006;367:1747–57.
- Madoff LC. ProMED-mail: an early warning system for emerging diseases. Clin Infect Dis. 2004;39:227–32.
- Mykhalovskiy E, Weir L. The Global Public Health Intelligence Network and early warning outbreak detection: a Canadian contribution to global public health. Can J Public Health. 2006;97:42–4.
- Brownstein JS, Freifeld CC, Reis BY, Mandl KD. Surveillance Sans Frontieres: Internet-based emerging infectious disease intelligence and the HealthMap project. PLoS Med. 2008;5:e151.
- Collier N, Doan S, Kawazoe A, Goodwin RM, Conway M, Tateno Y, BioCaster: detecting public health rumors with a Web-based text mining system. Bioinformatics. 2008;24:2940–1.
- Steinberger R, Fuart F, van der Goot E, Best C, von Etter P, Yangarber R. Text mining from the web for medical intelligence. In: Fogelman-Soulié F, Perrotta D, Piskorski J, Steinberger R, editors. Amsterdam: IOS Press; 2008. p. 295–310
- Daszak P, Zambrana-Torrelio C, Bogich TL, Fernandez M, Epstein JH, Murray KA, Interdisciplinary approaches to understanding disease emergence: the past, present, and future drivers of Nipah virus emergence. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2013;110(Suppl 1):3681–8.
- Karesh WB, Dobson A, Lloyd-Smith JO, Lubroth J, Dixon MA, Bennett M, Ecology of zoonoses: natural and unnatural histories. Lancet. 2012;380:1936–45.
- Cohen ML. Changing patterns of infectious disease. Nature. 2000;406:762–7.
- Bates M. Observations on the distribution of diurnal mosquitoes in a tropical forest. Ecology. 1944;25:159–70.
- Downs WG, Pittendrigh CS. Bromeliad malaria in Trinidad, British West Indies. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 1946;s1–26:47–66.
- Turner V, Gantz JF, Reinsel D, Minton S. The digital universe of opportunities: rich data and the increasing value of the Internet of things. Framingham (MA): IDC; 2014.
- Report: McKinsey Global Institute. Big data: the next frontier for innovation, competition, and productivity. 2011 [cited 2014 May 15]. http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/business_technology/big_data_the_next_frontier_for_innovation
- TeleGeography 2014. Executive summary. Global bandwidth research service. Washington (DC): TeleGeography, Inc; 2014. p. 6.
- Keller M, Blench M, Tolentino H, Freifeld CC, Mandl KD, Mawudeku A, Use of unstructured event-based reports for global infectious disease surveillance. Emerg Infect Dis. 2009;15:689–95.
- Kornai A. Digital language death. PLoS ONE. 2013;8:e77056.
- Scales D, Zelenev A, Brownstein JS. Quantifying the effect of media limitations on outbreak data in a global online web-crawling epidemic intelligence system, 2008–2011. Emerging Health Threats Journal. 2013;6:21621.
- Schwind JS, Wolking DJ, Brownstein JS, Consortium P, Mazet JAK, Smith WA. Evaluation of local media surveillance for improved disease recognition and monitoring in global hotspot regions. PLoS ONE. 2014;9:e110236.
- Sonricker Hansen AL, Li A, Joly D, Mekaru S, Brownstein JS. Digital surveillance: a novel approach to monitoring the illegal wildlife trade. PLoS ONE. 2012;7:e51156.
- Pulliam JR, Epstein JH, Dushoff J, Rahman SA, Bunning M, Jamaluddin AA, Agricultural intensification, priming for persistence and the emergence of Nipah virus: a lethal bat-borne zoonosis. J R Soc Interface. 2012;9:89–101.
- Preston ND, Daszak P, Colwell RR, Preston ND, Daszak P, Colwell RR. The human environment interface: applying ecosystem concepts to health. Curr Top Microbiol Immunol. 2013;365:83–100.
- Epstein JH, Field HE, Luby S, Pulliam JR, Daszak P. Nipah virus: impact, origins, and causes of emergence. Curr Infect Dis Rep. 2006;8:59–65.
- Lam SK, Chua KB. Nipah virus encephalitis outbreak in Malaysia. Clin Infect Dis. 2002;34(Suppl 2):S48–51.
- Wilcox BA, Gubler DJ. Disease ecology and the global emergence of zoonotic pathogens. Environ Health Prev Med. 2005;10:263–72.
1These first authors contributed equally to this article.
2These authors were co-senior authors of this article.