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Volume 22, Number 1—January 2016
Letter

Objective Determination of End of MERS Outbreak, South Korea, 2015

Hiroshi NishiuraComments to Author , Yuichiro Miyamatsu, and Kenji Mizumoto
Author affiliations: The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan (H. Nishiura, Y. Miyamatsu, Kenji Mizumoto); Japan Science and Technology Agency, Kawaguchi Saitama, Japan (H. Nishiura, Y. Miyamatsu, K. Mizumoto)

Main Article

Figure

Estimated probability of observing additional cases of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus infection, South Korea, 2015. A) Estimated probability of observing additional cases on each calendar date, given that no illness onset has been observed by the specified date. Circles represent posterior median values; whiskers extend to upper and lower 95% credible intervals. Horizontal dashed line represents 5%, a threshold level. Vertical line indicates August 2, 2015, on which the end of the

Figure. Estimated probability of observing additional cases of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus infection, South Korea, 2015. A) Estimated probability of observing additional cases on each calendar date, given that no illness onset has been observed by the specified date. Circles represent posterior median values; whiskers extend to upper and lower 95% credible intervals. Horizontal dashed line represents 5%, a threshold level. Vertical line indicates August 2, 2015, on which the end of the outbreak might be declared if World Health Organization criteria were followed. B) Calendar date to declare the end of outbreak for different threshold probabilities and percentile points of posterior distribution. Horizontal axis corresponds to the probability of observing additional cases. Vertical axis shows the date of declaration which is calculated as 1 day plus the date at which the probability of observing additional cases lowered the specified threshold probability.

Main Article

Page created: December 18, 2015
Page updated: December 18, 2015
Page reviewed: December 18, 2015
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