Volume 22, Number 12—December 2016
Research
Anomalous High Rainfall and Soil Saturation as Combined Risk Indicator of Rift Valley Fever Outbreaks, South Africa, 2008–2011
Table
Summary of predicated risk for all Rift Valley fever outbreaks during the epidemics of 2008–2011, South Africa*
Year, month of outbreak | No. outbreaks | 3-mo rolling maximum risk map | Risk for outbreak |
||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Low | Moderate | High | |||
2008 | |||||
Jan | 5 | 2007 Oct–Dec | NA | 5 | NA |
Feb | 10 | 2007 Oct–Dec | NA | 10 | NA |
Mar | 5 | 2008 Nov–Jan | NA | NA | 5 |
Apr | 7 | 2008 Nov–Jan | 1 | NA | 6 |
May | 4 | 2008 Nov–Jan | NA | NA | 4 |
Jun |
4 |
2008 Nov–Jan |
1 |
3 |
NA |
2009 | |||||
Feb | 6 | 2009 Nov–Jan | NA | 6 | NA |
Mar | 4 | 2009 Nov–Jan | NA | 4 | NA |
Apr | 7 | 2009 Dec–Feb | 1 | 6 | NA |
May | 1 | 2009 Dec–Feb | NA | 1 | NA |
Jun | 1 | 2009 Dec–Feb | NA | 1 | NA |
Oct | 22 | 2009 Jun–Aug | 22 | 4 | NA |
Nov | 16 | 2009 Jun–Aug | 16 | 5 | NA |
Dec |
1 |
2009 Jun–Aug |
1 |
NA |
NA |
2010 | |||||
Jan | 2 | 2009 Oct–Dec | NA | 1 | 1 |
Feb | 99 | 2010 Nov–Jan | 2 | 15 | 82 |
Mar | 257 | 2010 Dec–Feb | 4 | 83 | 170 |
Apr | 140 | 2010 Dec–Feb | 2 | 39 | 99 |
May | 38 | 2010 Dec–Feb | 8 | 16 | 14 |
Jun | 10 | 2010 Dec–Feb | 5 | 3 | 2 |
Jul | 1 | 2010 Dec–Feb | 1 | NA | NA |
Aug |
2 |
2010 Dec–Feb |
1 |
NA |
1 |
2011 | |||||
Jan | 6 | 2010 Oct–Dec | 6 | NA | NA |
Feb | 15 | 2011 Nov–Jan | 1 | 8 | 6 |
Mar | 51 | 2011 Dec–Feb | 2 | 19 | 30 |
Apr | 47 | 2011 Dec–Feb | 5 | 14 | 28 |
May | 14 | 2011 Dec–Feb | 8 | 1 | 5 |
Jun |
3 |
2011 Dec–Feb |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Total (%) | 778 | 88 (11.3) | 236 (30.3) | 454 (58.4) |
*Values were extracted from relevant 3-mo rolling maximum risk maps. NA, not applicable.