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Volume 22, Number 12—December 2016
Research

Anomalous High Rainfall and Soil Saturation as Combined Risk Indicator of Rift Valley Fever Outbreaks, South Africa, 2008–2011

Roy WilliamsComments to Author , Johan Malherbe, Harold Weepener, Phelix Majiwa, and Robert Swanepoel
Author affiliations: Agricultural Research Council–Onderstepoort Veterinary Institute, Onderstepoort, South Africa (R. Williams, P. Majiwa); Agricultural Research Council–Institute for Soil, Climate and Water, Pretoria, South Africa (J. Malherbe, H. Weepener); University of Pretoria, Onderstepoort (R. Swanepoel)

Main Article

Table

Summary of predicated risk for all Rift Valley fever outbreaks during the epidemics of 2008–2011, South Africa*

Year, month of outbreak No. outbreaks 3-mo rolling maximum risk map Risk for outbreak
Low Moderate High
2008
Jan 5 2007 Oct–Dec NA 5 NA
Feb 10 2007 Oct–Dec NA 10 NA
Mar 5 2008 Nov–Jan NA NA 5
Apr 7 2008 Nov–Jan 1 NA 6
May 4 2008 Nov–Jan NA NA 4
Jun
4
2008 Nov–Jan
1
3
NA
2009
Feb 6 2009 Nov–Jan NA 6 NA
Mar 4 2009 Nov–Jan NA 4 NA
Apr 7 2009 Dec–Feb 1 6 NA
May 1 2009 Dec–Feb NA 1 NA
Jun 1 2009 Dec–Feb NA 1 NA
Oct 22 2009 Jun–Aug 22 4 NA
Nov 16 2009 Jun–Aug 16 5 NA
Dec
1
2009 Jun–Aug
1
NA
NA
2010
Jan 2 2009 Oct–Dec NA 1 1
Feb 99 2010 Nov–Jan 2 15 82
Mar 257 2010 Dec–Feb 4 83 170
Apr 140 2010 Dec–Feb 2 39 99
May 38 2010 Dec–Feb 8 16 14
Jun 10 2010 Dec–Feb 5 3 2
Jul 1 2010 Dec–Feb 1 NA NA
Aug
2
2010 Dec–Feb
1
NA
1
2011
Jan 6 2010 Oct–Dec 6 NA NA
Feb 15 2011 Nov–Jan 1 8 6
Mar 51 2011 Dec–Feb 2 19 30
Apr 47 2011 Dec–Feb 5 14 28
May 14 2011 Dec–Feb 8 1 5
Jun
3
2011 Dec–Feb
1
1
1
Total (%) 778 88 (11.3) 236 (30.3) 454 (58.4)

*Values were extracted from relevant 3-mo rolling maximum risk maps. NA, not applicable.

Main Article

Page created: November 17, 2016
Page updated: November 17, 2016
Page reviewed: November 17, 2016
The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.
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