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Volume 22, Number 3—March 2016
Research

Effects of Response to 2014–2015 Ebola Outbreak on Deaths from Malaria, HIV/AIDS, and Tuberculosis, West Africa

Alyssa S. Parpia1, Martial L. Ndeffo-Mbah1Comments to Author , Natasha S. Wenzel, and Alison P. Galvani
Author affiliations: Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, USA

Main Article

Table 4

Sensitivity of epidemiologic parameters to mortality rates from malaria, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis during response to the 2014–2015 Ebola outbreak in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone

Parameter PRCC*
Guinea Liberia Sierra Leone
Malaria
Death from severe malaria with treatment −0.594 −0.751 −0.587
Death from severe malaria without treatment 0.822 0.626 0.411
Progressing from uncomplicated to severe malaria given no treatment 0.556 0.854 0.738
Death from uncomplicated malaria without treatment −0.529 −0.785 −0.477
Fever cases attributable to malaria 0.470 0.701 0.415
Spontaneous recovery from uncomplicated malaria 0.173 0.305 0.289
Developing fever within 2 weeks at age <1 0.333 0.085 −0.018
Developing fever within 2 weeks at age 1–2 −0.145 −0.107 0.182
Developing fever within 2 weeks at age 2–3 −0.044 −0.009 −0.059
Developing fever within 2 weeks at age 3–4 0.139 0.287 −0.045
Developing fever within 2 weeks at age 4–5 −0.071 −0.315 −0.342
Treatment coverage for severe malaria 0.260 −0.093 0.444
Death from uncomplicated malaria with treatment −0.396 −0.344 −0.411
Treatment coverage for malaria before Ebola outbreak for age <1 0.038 −0.104 0.211
Treatment coverage for malaria before Ebola outbreak for ages 1–2 0.139 −0.013 −0.163
Treatment coverage for malaria before Ebola outbreak for ages 2–3 0.071 0.143 0.313
Treatment coverage for malaria before Ebola outbreak for ages 3–4 −0.149 −0.030 −0.061
Treatment coverage for malaria before Ebola outbreak for ages 4–5
 −0.455
 −0.662
 −0.239
HIV/AIDS
Death while receiving ART and CD4 count <200 cells/mm3 −0.679 −0.734 −0.649
Treatment coverage for HIV/AIDS before Ebola outbreak 0.381 0.474 0.467
Death while receiving no treatment and CD4 count <200 cells/mm3 0.494 0.683 0.693
Population with CD4 count >500 cells/mm3 0.244 0.604 0.397
Population with CD4 count 350 to 499 cells/mm3 −0.168 −0.062 −0.165
Population with CD4 count 200 to 349 cells/mm3 −0.220 0.042 0.084
Death while receiving ART with CD4 count 350 to 499 cells/mm3 −0.204 −0.271 −0.313
Death while receiving ART with CD4 count 200 to 349 cells/mm3 −0.329 −0.451 −0.320
Death while receiving no treatment and CD4 count 350 to 499 cells/mm3 −0.295 −0.438 −0.367
Death while receiving no treatment and CD4 count 200 to 349 cells/mm3
 0.107
 0.116
 −0.088
Tuberculosis
Treatment coverage for tuberculosis before Ebola outbreak 0.916 0.894 0.946
Death while receiving treatment for MDR-TB 0.134 −0.243 0.148
Death while receiving no treatment for tuberculosis 0.255 −0.138 −0.002
Death while receiving treatment for DS-TB 0.030 −0.211 0.075
Clearing infection after treatment default 0.148 0.463 0.174
MDR–TB cases out of all new TB cases 0.154 −0.057 −0.214
Unsuccessful tuberculosis treatment (failure or default) for DS-TB −0.037 −0.521 0.009
Treatment failure for DS-TB out of all unsuccessful treatment −0.226 −0.479 0.177

*Partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCCs) were used to determine the association between the probability of mortality from the studied diseases and input parameters of the model. The PRCC of each parameter was statistically significant (p<0.001).

Main Article

1These joint first authors contributed equally to this article.

Page created: February 18, 2016
Page updated: February 18, 2016
Page reviewed: February 18, 2016
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