Volume 23, Number 11—November 2017
Research
Symptom- and Laboratory-Based Ebola Risk Scores to Differentiate Likely Ebola Infections
Shefali Oza
, Alieu A. Sesay, Neal J. Russell, Kevin Wing, Sabah Boufkhed, Lahai Vandi, Sahr C. Sebba, Rachael Cummings, and Francesco Checchi
, Alieu A. Sesay, Neal J. Russell, Kevin Wing, Sabah Boufkhed, Lahai Vandi, Sahr C. Sebba, Rachael Cummings, and Francesco Checchi
Table 4
Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of ESR and ESLR scores to determine risk for infection in suspected Ebola patients*
| Score | % EVD negative | % EVD positive | Sensitivity† (95% CI) | Specificity† (95% CI) | PPV† (95% CI) | NPV† (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESR score, range −3 to +5 | ||||||
| −3 | 8 | 0 | 100 (100–100) | 0 (0–0) | 59 (55–64) | NA |
| −2 | 16 | 4 | 100 (100–100) | 8 (4–12) | 61 (57–66) | 100 (100–100) |
| −1 | 19 | 10 | 96 (94–98) | 24 (18–31) | 65 (60–70) | 81 (70–91) |
| 0 | 33 | 14 | 86 (81–90) | 43 (36–50) | 69 (64–74) | 67 (59–76) |
| 1 | 13 | 19 | 72 (66–77) | 76 (70–83) | 82 (76–87) | 65 (58–71) |
| 2 | 6 | 24 | 53 (47–59) | 89 (84–94) | 88 (82–93) | 56 (50–62) |
| 3 | 5 | 21 | 29 (23–35) | 95 (92–98) | 90 (84–97) | 48 (43–53) |
| 4 | 0 | 7 | 8 (5–11) | 100 (100–100) | 100 (100–100) | 43 (38–47) |
| 5 |
0 |
1 |
1 (0–3) |
100 (100–100) |
100 (100–100) |
41 (36–46) |
| ESLR score, range −4 to +9 | ||||||
| −4 | 1 | 0 | 100 (100–100) | 0 (0–0) | 56 (50–62) | NA |
| −3 | 10 | 1 | 100 (100–100) | 1 (0–2) | 56 (51–62) | 100 (100–100) |
| −2 | 16 | 1 | 99 (98–100) | 10 (5–15) | 59 (53–64) | 93 (81–100) |
| −1 | 19 | 3 | 99 (97–100) | 26 (19–34) | 63 (57–69) | 95 (88–100) |
| 0 | 25 | 3 | 95 (92–99) | 46 (37–54) | 69 (63–75) | 89 (81–96) |
| 1 | 11 | 8 | 92 (88–96) | 71 (63–78) | 80 (74–85) | 87 (81–94) |
| 2 | 7 | 14 | 84 (79–90) | 82 (75–88) | 85 (80–91) | 80 (74–87) |
| 3 | 9 | 14 | 70 (63–77) | 89 (84–94) | 89 (84–94) | 70 (63–77) |
| 4 | 1 | 20 | 55 (48–63) | 98 (95–100) | 97 (94–100) | 63 (57–70) |
| 5 | 1 | 17 | 36 (29–43) | 99 (97–100) | 97 (93–100) | 55 (48–61) |
| 6 | 0 | 10 | 18 (13–24) | 100 (100–100) | 100 (100–100) | 49 (43–55) |
| 7 | 0 | 7 | 9 (4–13) | 100 (100–100) | 100 (100–100) | 46 (41–52) |
| 8 | 0 | 1 | 2 (0–4) | 100 (100–100) | 100 (100–100) | 44 (39–50) |
| 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 (0–3) | 100 (100–100) | 100 (100–100) | 44 (39–50) |
*ESLR, Ebola symptom- and laboratory-based risk; ESR, Ebola symptom-based risk; EVD, Ebola virus disease; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value.
†Based on greater or equal to the score (e.g., sensitivity for a score of 0 means that those with a score of 0 or higher were considered to be EVD positive).
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