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Volume 23, Number 2—February 2017
Synopsis

Changing Epidemiology of Human Brucellosis, China, 1955–2014

Shengjie Lai1, Hang Zhou1, Weiyi Xiong1, Hongjie Yu, Zhuojie Huang, Jianxing Yu, Wenwu Yin, Liping Wang, Qiulan Chen, Yu Li, Di Mu, Lingjia Zeng, Xiang Ren, Mengjie Geng, Zike Zhang, Buyun Cui, Tiefeng Li, Dali Wang, Qiao Sun, Nicola A. Wardrop, Andrew J. Tatem, and Sheng WeiComments to Author 
Author affiliations: Division of Infectious Disease, Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early-Warning on Infectious Disease, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China (S. Lai, H. Zhou, W. Xiong, Z. Huang, J. Yu, W. Yin, L. Wang, Q. Chen, Y. Li, D. Mu, L. Zeng, X. Ren, M. Geng, Z. Zhang, Z. Li, H. Yu); WorldPop, Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK (S. Lai, N.A. Wardrop, A.J. Tatem); Flowminder Foundation, Stockholm, Sweden (S. Lai, A.J. Tatem); School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China (S. Lai, H. Yu); Universite´ Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium (M. Gilbert); Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique, Brussels (M. Gilbert); Institute of Pathogen Biology, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing (J. Yu); Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China (Z. Zhang); National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing (B. Cui); Base of Plague and Brucellosis Prevention and Control, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing (T. Li, D. Wang)

Main Article

Figure 1

Reported human brucellosis cases (N = 513,034), mainland China, 1955–2014. A) Aggregated number of cases (blue bars) and annual incidence rate (orange line) per 100,000 residents reported by year. The adjusted incidence rate (green dashed line) was estimated by an excess proportion (22.06%) that might be attributed to the effect of Internet-based reporting since 2004 (see Methods). B) Forecast of the monthly number of cases (blue line) during 2015–2019 by Holt-Winters exponential smoothing with

Figure 1. Reported human brucellosis cases (N = 513,034), mainland China, 1955–2014. A) Aggregated number of cases (blue bars) and annual incidence rate (orange line) per 100,000 residents reported by year. The adjusted incidence rate (green dashed line) was estimated by an excess proportion (22.06%) that might be attributed to the effect of Internet-based reporting since 2004 (see Methods). B) Forecast of the monthly number of cases (blue line) during 2015–2019 by Holt-Winters exponential smoothing with 80% CIs (light gray) and 95% CIs (dark gray) based on monthly numbers for 2004–2014.

Main Article

1These authors contributed equally to this article.

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Page updated: January 17, 2017
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