Skip directly to site content Skip directly to page options Skip directly to A-Z link Skip directly to A-Z link Skip directly to A-Z link
Volume 24, Number 1—January 2018
Research

Changing Geographic Patterns and Risk Factors for Avian Influenza A(H7N9) Infections in Humans, China

Jean Artois1, Hui Jiang1, Xiling Wang, Ying Qin, Morgan Pearcy, Shengjie Lai, Yujing Shi, Juanjuan Zhang, Zhibin Peng, Jiandong Zheng, Yangni He, Madhur S. Dhingra, Sophie von Dobschuetz, Fusheng Guo, Vincent Martin, Wantanee Kalpravidh, Filip Claes, Timothy Robinson, Simon I. Hay, Xiangming Xiao, Luzhao Feng, Sheng WeiComments to Author , and Hongjie YuComments to Author 
Author affiliations: Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium (J. Artois, M. Pearcy, M.S. Dhingra, M. Gilbert); Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China (H. Jiang, Y. Qin, S. Lai, Y. Shi, Z. Peng, J. Zheng, L. Feng, H. Yu); Fudan University School of Public Health, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China (X. Wang, S. Lai, J. Zhang, Y. He, X. Xiao, H. Yu); Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique, Brussels, Belgium (M. Pearcy, M. Gilbert); University of Southampton, Southampton, UK (S. Lai); Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy (M.S. Dhingra, S. von Dobschuetz, T. Robinson); Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok, Thailand (F. Guo, W. Kalpravidh, F. Claes); Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations China Office, Beijing (V. Martin); University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA (S.I. Hay); University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (S.I. Hay); University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, USA (X. Xiao)

Main Article

Table 1

Relative contribution of the different Poisson BRT models across 5 epidemic waves of influenza A(H7N9), China*

Model Relative contribution ± SD, %
Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3 Wave 4 Wave 5
Anthropogenic† 41.66 50.99 39.93 17.31 21.52
  LPM density 39.81 ± 0.24 50.43 ± 0.42 12.22 ± 0.78 13.24 ± 0.78 18.91 ± 0.12
  Human population density
 1.85 ± 0.14
 0.56 ± 0.03
 27.71 ± 0.49
 4.07 ± 0.22
 2.61 ± 0.04
Poultry† 10.39 5.57 2.12 28.53 36.37
  Chicken-to-duck ratio 5.33 ± 0.18 4.18 ± 0.06 0.54 ± 0.06 20.23 ± 0.3 20.49 ± 0.18
  Poultry density
 5.06 ± 0.14
 1.39 ± 0.04
 1.58 ± 0.13
 8.3 ± 0.36
 15.88 ± 0.08
Water habitat† 2.18 3.6 9.29 5.68 8.48
  Proportion of wetlands 0.49 ± 0.02 1.13 ± 0.06 1.51 ± 0.1 0.74 ± 0.07 1.17 ± 0.03
  Distance to lakes
 1.69 ± 0.05
 2.47 ± 0.11
 7.78 ± 0.23
 4.94 ± 0.19
 7.31 ± 0.1
Autoregressive term
 45.77 ± 0.27
 39.84 ± 0.32
 48.65 ± 0.65
 48.49 ± 1.33
 33.62 ± 0.17

*BRT, boosted regression tree; LPM, live poultry market.

†Sum of relative contribution for both categories.

Main Article

1These authors contributed equally to this article.

Page created: December 19, 2017
Page updated: December 19, 2017
Page reviewed: December 19, 2017
The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.
file_external