Volume 24, Number 10—October 2018
Research
Evaluation of Nowcasting for Detecting and Predicting Local Influenza Epidemics, Sweden, 2009–2014
Armin Spreco
, Olle Eriksson, Örjan Dahlström, Benjamin John Cowling, and Toomas Timpka
, Olle Eriksson, Örjan Dahlström, Benjamin John Cowling, and Toomas Timpka
Table 2
Performance of the detection algorithm displayed with alert thresholds updated by using data from previous winter influenza seasons in evaluation of nowcasting for detection and prediction of local influenza epidemics, Sweden, 2009–2014*
| Influenza virus activity | Updated threshold, cases/d/100,000 population | Timeliness† | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 pH1N1‡ | 0.424 | −5 | Good |
| 2010–11 B and pH1N1 | 0.212 | −5 | Good |
| 2011–12 A(H3N2) | 0.207 | 15 | Poor |
| 2012–13 A(H3N2), B, and pH1N1 | 0.242 | 3 | Excellent |
| 2013–14 A(H3N2), B, and pH1N1‡ | 0.481 | −3 | Excellent |
*pH1N1, pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus.
†Positive value means that the algorithm issued an alarm before the local epidemic had started; negative value means that the alarm was raised after the start of the epidemic.
‡The threshold was doubled because of a pandemic alert or observation of a period of simmering influenza activity.
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