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Volume 24, Number 10—October 2018

Evaluation of Nowcasting for Detecting and Predicting Local Influenza Epidemics, Sweden, 2009–2014

Armin SprecoComments to Author , Olle Eriksson, Örjan Dahlström, Benjamin John Cowling, and Toomas Timpka
Author affiliations: Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden (A. Spreco, O. Eriksson, Ö. Dahlström, T. Timpka); Center for Health Services Development, Region Östergötland, Linköping (A. Spreco, T. Timpka); Hong Kong University, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China (B.J. Cowling)

Main Article

Table 2

Performance of the detection algorithm displayed with alert thresholds updated by using data from previous winter influenza seasons in evaluation of nowcasting for detection and prediction of local influenza epidemics, Sweden, 2009–2014*

Influenza virus activity Updated threshold, cases/d/100,000 population Timeliness† Interpretation
2009 pH1N1‡ 0.424 −5 Good
2010–11 B and pH1N1 0.212 −5 Good
2011–12 A(H3N2) 0.207 15 Poor
2012–13 A(H3N2), B, and pH1N1 0.242 3 Excellent
2013–14 A(H3N2), B, and pH1N1‡ 0.481 −3 Excellent

*pH1N1, pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus.
†Positive value means that the algorithm issued an alarm before the local epidemic had started; negative value means that the alarm was raised after the start of the epidemic.
‡The threshold was doubled because of a pandemic alert or observation of a period of simmering influenza activity.

Main Article

Page created: September 14, 2018
Page updated: September 14, 2018
Page reviewed: September 14, 2018
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