Volume 24, Number 10—October 2018
Research
Evaluation of Nowcasting for Detecting and Predicting Local Influenza Epidemics, Sweden, 2009–2014
Armin Spreco
, Olle Eriksson, Örjan Dahlström, Benjamin John Cowling, and Toomas Timpka
, Olle Eriksson, Örjan Dahlström, Benjamin John Cowling, and Toomas Timpka
Table 3
Performance of peak-timing and peak-intensity predictions from evaluation of nowcasting for detection and prediction of local influenza epidemics, Sweden, 2009–2014*
| Influenza virus active |
Time-of-peak predictions† | Peak intensity predictions | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date when prediction made |
Time to peak, d |
Prediction error |
Interpretation |
Category (cases/d/100,000 population) |
Interpretation |
|||
| Predicted |
Factual |
|||||||
| 2009 pH1N1 | 2009 Sep 27 | 8 | −28 | Poor | Medium (3.3) | Medium (2.9) | Successful | |
| 2010–11 B and pH1N1 | 2011 Feb 11 | 10 | 0 | Excellent | Medium (4.5) | Medium (4.9) | Successful | |
| 2011–12 A(H3N2) | 2012 Feb 25 | 9 | 7 | Good | Medium (4.5) | Very high (12.4) | Unsuccessful | |
| 2012–13 A(H3N2), B, and pH1N1 | 2013 Feb 22 | 10 | −7 | Good | Very high (10.1) | Very high (11.7) | Successful | |
| 2013–14 A(H3N2), B, and pH1N1 | 2014 Feb 17 | 8 | −8 | Acceptable | Nonepidemic (1.0) | Medium (3.4) | Unsuccessful | |
*pH1N1, pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus.
†Positive value means that the peak was predicted to be reached before the actual peak occurred; negative value means that the peak was predicted to be reached after the actual peak occurred.
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