Volume 24, Number 10—October 2018
Evaluation of Nowcasting for Detecting and Predicting Local Influenza Epidemics, Sweden, 2009–2014
|Influenza virus active
||Time-of-peak predictions†||Peak intensity predictions|
|Date when prediction made
||Time to peak, d
||Category (cases/d/100,000 population)
|2009 pH1N1||2009 Sep 27||8||−28||Poor||Medium (3.3)||Medium (2.9)||Successful|
|2010–11 B and pH1N1||2011 Feb 11||10||0||Excellent||Medium (4.5)||Medium (4.9)||Successful|
|2011–12 A(H3N2)||2012 Feb 25||9||7||Good||Medium (4.5)||Very high (12.4)||Unsuccessful|
|2012–13 A(H3N2), B, and pH1N1||2013 Feb 22||10||−7||Good||Very high (10.1)||Very high (11.7)||Successful|
|2013–14 A(H3N2), B, and pH1N1||2014 Feb 17||8||−8||Acceptable||Nonepidemic (1.0)||Medium (3.4)||Unsuccessful|
*pH1N1, pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus.
†Positive value means that the peak was predicted to be reached before the actual peak occurred; negative value means that the peak was predicted to be reached after the actual peak occurred.