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Volume 24, Number 10—October 2018

Evaluation of Nowcasting for Detecting and Predicting Local Influenza Epidemics, Sweden, 2009–2014

Armin SprecoComments to Author , Olle Eriksson, Örjan Dahlström, Benjamin John Cowling, and Toomas Timpka
Author affiliations: Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden (A. Spreco, O. Eriksson, Ö. Dahlström, T. Timpka); Center for Health Services Development, Region Östergötland, Linköping (A. Spreco, T. Timpka); Hong Kong University, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China (B.J. Cowling)

Main Article

Table 3

Performance of peak-timing and peak-intensity predictions from evaluation of nowcasting for detection and prediction of local influenza epidemics, Sweden, 2009–2014*

Influenza virus active
Time-of-peak predictions†
Peak intensity predictions
Date when prediction made
Time to peak, d
Prediction error
Category (cases/d/100,000 population)
2009 pH1N1 2009 Sep 27 8 −28 Poor Medium (3.3) Medium (2.9) Successful
2010–11 B and pH1N1 2011 Feb 11 10 0 Excellent Medium (4.5) Medium (4.9) Successful
2011–12 A(H3N2) 2012 Feb 25 9 7 Good Medium (4.5) Very high (12.4) Unsuccessful
2012–13 A(H3N2), B, and pH1N1 2013 Feb 22 10 −7 Good Very high (10.1) Very high (11.7) Successful
2013–14 A(H3N2), B, and pH1N1 2014 Feb 17 8 −8 Acceptable Nonepidemic
(1.0) Medium
(3.4) Unsuccessful

*pH1N1, pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus.
†Positive value means that the peak was predicted to be reached before the actual peak occurred; negative value means that the peak was predicted to be reached after the actual peak occurred.

Main Article

Page created: September 14, 2018
Page updated: September 14, 2018
Page reviewed: September 14, 2018
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