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Volume 26, Number 11—November 2020
Online Report

Early Insights from Statistical and Mathematical Modeling of Key Epidemiologic Parameters of COVID-19

Matthew Biggerstaff, Benjamin J. Cowling, Zulma M. Cucunubá, Linh Dinh, Neil M. Ferguson, Huizhi Gao, Verity Hill, Natsuko Imai, Michael A. Johansson, Sarah Kada, Oliver Morgan, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Jonathan A. Polonsky, Pragati Venkata Prasad, Talia M. Quandelacy, Andrew Rambaut, Jordan W. Tappero, Katelijn A. VandemaeleComments to Author , Alessandro Vespignani, K. Lane Warmbrod, Jessica Y. Wong, and for the WHO COVID-19 Modelling Parameters Group
Author affiliations: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA (M. Biggerstaff, M.A. Johansson, S. Kada, P.V. Prasad, T.M. Quandelacy); University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China (B.J. Cowling, H. Gao, J.Y. Wong); Imperial College London, London, UK (Z.M. Cucunubá, N.M. Ferguson, N. Imai); World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland (L. Dinh, O. Morgan, J.A. Polonsky, J.W. Tappero, K.A. Vandemaele, K.L. Warmbrod); University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK (V. Hill, A. Rambaut); Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA (A. Pastore y Piontti, A. Vespignani); ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy (A. Vespignani)

Main Article

Figure 1

Basic reproduction number (R0) estimates for coronavirus disease by date of last reported cases analyzed and location. Points are mean or median estimates and error bars indicate 90% (12,13,15) or 95% bounds (i.e., confidence or credible intervals). International–China estimates are those using international cases or exported cases from China to infer R0 in China or Hubei Province. Estimates for China refer to R0 estimates at the national or province level, except for those exclusive estimating

Figure 1. Basic reproduction number (R0) estimates for coronavirus disease by date of last reported cases analyzed and location. Points are mean or median estimates and error bars indicate 90% (12,13,15) or 95% bounds (i.e., confidence or credible intervals). International–China estimates are those using international cases or exported cases from China to infer R0 in China or Hubei Province. Estimates for China refer to R0 estimates at the national or province level, except for those exclusive estimating R0 for Hubei (China–Hubei). The gray shaded bar represents the time period before January 23, 2020, the date when broad restrictions were implemented in Hubei Province.

Main Article

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1All authors contributed equally to this article.

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