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Volume 26, Number 11—November 2020
Online Report

Early Insights from Statistical and Mathematical Modeling of Key Epidemiologic Parameters of COVID-19

Matthew Biggerstaff, Benjamin J. Cowling, Zulma M. Cucunubá, Linh Dinh, Neil M. Ferguson, Huizhi Gao, Verity Hill, Natsuko Imai, Michael A. Johansson, Sarah Kada, Oliver Morgan, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Jonathan A. Polonsky, Pragati Venkata Prasad, Talia M. Quandelacy, Andrew Rambaut, Jordan W. Tappero, Katelijn A. VandemaeleComments to Author , Alessandro Vespignani, K. Lane Warmbrod, Jessica Y. Wong, and for the WHO COVID-19 Modelling Parameters Group
Author affiliations: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA (M. Biggerstaff, M.A. Johansson, S. Kada, P.V. Prasad, T.M. Quandelacy); University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China (B.J. Cowling, H. Gao, J.Y. Wong); Imperial College London, London, UK (Z.M. Cucunubá, N.M. Ferguson, N. Imai); World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland (L. Dinh, O. Morgan, J.A. Polonsky, J.W. Tappero, K.A. Vandemaele, K.L. Warmbrod); University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK (V. Hill, A. Rambaut); Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA (A. Pastore y Piontti, A. Vespignani); ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy (A. Vespignani)

Main Article

Figure 4

Estimated doubling time for coronavirus disease based on search in peer-reviewed literature and gray literature. Error bars indicate confidence (blue) or credible (red) intervals. Gray literature sources: Onset: Zhao et al., unpub. data, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020941v1 ; report: Pinotti et al., unpub. data, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.24.20027326v1 ; sample collection: Bedford, unpub. data, http://virological.org/t/phylodynamic-estimation-of-inci

Figure 4. Estimated doubling time for coronavirus disease based on search in peer-reviewed literature and gray literature. Error bars indicate confidence (blue) or credible (red) intervals. Gray literature sources: Onset: Zhao et al., unpub. data, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020941v1 ; report: Pinotti et al., unpub. data, https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.24.20027326v1 ; sample collection: Bedford, unpub. data, http://virological.org/t/phylodynamic-estimation-of-incidence-and-prevalence-of-novel-coronavirus-ncov-infections-through-time/3 , Rambaut, unpub. data, http://virological.org/t/phylodynamic-analysis-176-genomes-6-mar-2020/356 , Rambaut, unpub. data, http://virological.org/t/phylodynamic-analysis-176-genomes-6-mar-2020/356 (same) , Volz et al., https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/10044/1/77169/11/2020-02-15-COVID19-Report-5.pdf (also see Appendix Tables 2, 3).

Main Article

1All authors contributed equally to this article.

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Page updated: September 11, 2020
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