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Volume 26, Number 12—December 2020
Research Letter

Effects of Cocooning on Coronavirus Disease Rates after Relaxing Social Distancing

Xutong Wang, Zhanwei Du, George Huang, Remy F. Pasco, Spencer J. Fox, Alison P. Galvani, Michael Pignone, S. Claiborne Johnston, and Lauren Ancel MeyersComments to Author 
Author affiliations: The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, USA (X. Wang, Z. Du, G. Huang, R.F. Pasco, S.J. Fox, L.A. Meyers); Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, USA (A.P. Galvani); T; he University of Texas at Austin Dell Medical School, Austin (M. Pignone, S. Claiborne Johnston); Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA (L. Ancel Meyers)

Main Article

Table

Key parameters of a transmission model for coronavirus disease, Austin, Texas, USA*

Parameter Value
Incubation period, d (range) 2.9 (1.9–3.9)
Infectious period, d (range) 6.3 (5.3–7.3)
Asymptomatic proportion, %
 43
Average hospitalization, d
Recovered 10.96
Died
 8.2
Transmission reduction during Stay Home–Work Safe Order, % (95% CI)†
 70 (45%–100%)
Cocooning efficacy, % reduction in transmission relative to Stay–Home Work Safe Order‡
Cocooning 100
Enhanced cocooning 125
Age group, y 0–4 5–17 18–49 50–64 >65
Symptomatic case hospitalization rate, %§
Low-risk group 0.0279 0.0215 1.3215 2.8563 3.3873
High-risk group 0.2791 0.2146 13.2154 28.5634 33.8733
Infected fatality rate, %‡
Low-risk group 0.0009 0.0022 0.0339 0.2520 0.6440
High-risk group 0.0092 0.0218 0.3388 2.5197 6.4402

*Detailed parameter distributions and references are given in Appendix Tables 3, 4.
†Estimated by fitting the model to coronavirus disease hospitalization counts March 13–April 23.
‡The Appendix provides sensitivity analyses with respect to 2 key assumptions of the model: age-specific contact patterns, which might have changed during the recent unprecedented social distancing; and equally effective cocooning of persons at high risk across all age groups. Cocooning and enhanced cocooning are for persons >65 years of age and persons <65 years of age with high-risk underlying conditions. 
§The hospitalization rate and fatality rate for the high-risk group is assumed to be 10 times higher than the corresponding low-risk group in the same age range. The overall hospitalization rate and fatality rate is based on the age-specific values listed in corresponding literature.

Main Article

Page created: September 08, 2020
Page updated: November 19, 2020
Page reviewed: November 19, 2020
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