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Volume 26, Number 7—July 2020
Research

High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2

Steven Sanche1, Yen Ting Lin1, Chonggang Xu, Ethan Romero-Severson, Nick Hengartner, and Ruian KeComments to Author 
Author affiliations: Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA

Main Article

Figure 5

Estimation of the basic reproductive number (R0), derived by integrating uncertainties in parameter values, during the 2019 novel coronavirus disease outbreak in China. A) Changes in R0 based on different growth rates and serial intervals. Each dot represents a calculation with mean latent period (range 2.2–6 days) and mean infectious periods (range 4–14 days). Only those estimates falling within the range of serial intervals of interests were plotted. B) Histogram summarizing the estimated R0 o

Figure 5. Estimation of the basic reproductive number (R0), derived by integrating uncertainties in parameter values, during the 2019 novel coronavirus disease outbreak in China. A) Changes in R0 based on different growth rates and serial intervals. Each dot represents a calculation with mean latent period (range 2.2–6 days) and mean infectious periods (range 4–14 days). Only those estimates falling within the range of serial intervals of interests were plotted. B) Histogram summarizing the estimated R0 of all dots in panel A (i.e., serial interval ranges of 6–9 days). The median R0 is 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9).

Main Article

1These first authors contributed equally to this article.

Page created: April 07, 2020
Page updated: April 07, 2020
Page reviewed: April 07, 2020
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