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Volume 27, Number 10—October 2021

Predictors of Test Positivity, Mortality, and Seropositivity during the Early Coronavirus Disease Epidemic, Orange County, California, USA

Daniel M. ParkerComments to Author , Tim Bruckner, Verónica M. Vieira, Catalina Medina, Vladimir N. Minin, Philip L. Felgner, Alissa Dratch, Matthew Zahn, Scott M. Bartell, and Bernadette Boden-Albala
Author affiliations: University of California, Irvine, Irvine, California, USA (D.M. Parker, T. Bruckner, V.M. Vieira, C. Medina, V.N. Minin, P.L. Felgner, S.M. Bartell, B. Boden-Albala); Orange County Health Care Agency, Santa Ana, California, USA (A. Dratch, M. Zahn)

Main Article

Table 1

Global Moran’s I statistics for reported coronavirus disease case incidence, test positivity, and testing intensity for each month of the study period, Orange County, California, USA, March–August 2020*

Month Case incidence
Test positivity
Testing intensity
I p value I p value I p value
March 0.238 0.002 0.059 0.150 0.448 0.001
April 0.168 0.012 0.271 0.001 0.022 0.257
May 0.558 0.001 0.492 0.001 0.345 0.001
June 0.606 0.001 0.552 0.001 0.469 0.001
July 0.591 0.001 0.500 0.001 0.408 0.001
August 0.603 0.001 0.472 0.001 0.185 0.002

*The Moran’s I statistic indicates the degree of spatial clustering whereas the simulated p-value gives an indication of statistical significance. Moran’s I values roughly range from −1 to 1, with 1 indicating complete spatial clustering (i.e., all areas with high values are neighboring other areas with high values) and −1 indicating complete spatial dispersion (with high value areas always neighboring low value areas).

Main Article

Page created: July 23, 2021
Page updated: September 19, 2021
Page reviewed: September 19, 2021
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