Volume 27, Number 10—October 2021
Research
Predictors of Test Positivity, Mortality, and Seropositivity during the Early Coronavirus Disease Epidemic, Orange County, California, USA
, Tim Bruckner, Verónica M. Vieira, Catalina Medina, Vladimir N. Minin, Philip L. Felgner, Alissa Dratch, Matthew Zahn, Scott M. Bartell, and Bernadette Boden-Albala
Table 3
Logistic regression results for odds of dying from COVID-19 among persons who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, Orange County, California, USA, March–August 2020*
| Characteristic | No. (%) |
Adjusted odds ratio (95% CI)† | |
|---|---|---|---|
| COVID-19 deaths, n = 1,038 | Total cases, n = 42,383 | ||
| Age, decades |
2.56 (2.45–2.67) |
||
| Sex | |||
| F | 450 (43.35) | 21,694 (51.19) | Referent |
| M |
588 (56.65) |
20,689 (48.81) |
2.00 (1.73–2.31) |
| Race or ethnicity | |||
| White | 345 (33.24) | 6,390 (15.08) | Referent |
| Asian | 186 (17.92) | 1,963 (4.63) | 1.54 (1.23–1.93) |
| Black | 15 (1.45) | 322 (0.76) | 1.06 (0.56–2.02) |
| Hispanic | 92 (8.86) | 3,874 (9.14) | 1.05 (0.79–1.38) |
| Native American | 3 (0.29) | 34 (0.08) | 1.46 (0.46–4.58) |
| Pacific Islander | 3 (0.29) | 130 (0.31) | 0.71 (0.22–2.26) |
| Unknown |
394 (37.96) |
29,670 (70) |
0.47 (0.4–0.55) |
| % With college degree in ZIP code | |||
| 1st quartile | 656 (63.2) | 23,221 (54.79) | Referent |
| 2nd quartile | 190 (18.3) | 10,223 (24.12) | 0.67 (0.52–0.86) |
| 3rd quartile | 155 (14.93) | 5,691 (13.43) | 0.77 (0.54–1.08) |
| 4th quartile |
37 (3.56) |
3,248 (7.66) |
0.51 (0.31–0.84) |
| % With insurance in ZIP code | |||
| 1st quartile | 566 (54.53) | 21,989 (51.88) | Referent |
| 2nd quartile | 281 (27.07) | 11,097 (26.18) | 1.04 (0.83–1.29) |
| 3rd quartile | 123 (11.85) | 5,185 (12.23) | 1.36 (0.95–1.93) |
| 4th quartile |
68 (6.55) |
4,112 (9.7) |
0.79 (0.52–1.2) |
| Population density, × 1,000 persons/km2‡ | 0.83 (0.71–0.96) | ||
| House crowding index |
1.04 (1.02–1.05) |
||
| Median income (SD) | 0.86 (0.7–1.05) | ||
| Time (SD) | 0.68 (0.62–0.75) | ||
| COVID-19 ICU patients (SD)§ | 1.18 (1.05–1.34) | ||
*Values are no. (%) except where indicated. A random intercept was included for ZIP code. The period covered in this analysis is March 1–August 16, 2020. Total numbers of positive cases are larger than the total number reported in Table 2 because of more extensive data curation for mortality data than for general test data. More rows of data were dropped because of missing information (e.g., on age or sex) in the test positivity data than in the mortality data. COVID-19, coronavirus disease; ICU, intensive care unit; SARS-CoV-2, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. †Model intercept represents odds of death for a White female diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 in the 0–4 years age group in a ZIP code in the first quartile of college degree and insured with the average population density in Orange County. The odds of this person testing dying from COVID-19 is estimated to be zero. ‡Estimated percentage of population density in a person’s ZIP code. §Percentage of hospital beds not being used by COVID-19 patients in Orange County.