Transmission Dynamics of African Swine Fever Virus, South Korea, 2019
Dae Sung Yoo
1, Younjung Kim
1 , Eune Sub Lee, Jun Sik Lim, Seong Keun Hong, Il Seob Lee, Chung Sik Jung, Ha Chung Yoon, Sung Hwan Wee, Dirk U. Pfeiffer, and Guillaume Fournié
Author affiliations: Animal and Plant Quarantine Agency, Gimcheon, South Korea (D.S. Yoo, E.S. Lee, S.K. Hong, I.S. Lee, C.S. Jung, H.C. Yoon, S.H. Wee); Jockey Club College of Veterinary Medicine and Life Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China (Y. Kim, D.U. Pfeiffer); Kangwon National University College of Veterinary Medicine, Chuncheon, South Korea (J.S. Lim); Royal Veterinary College, London, UK (D.U. Pfeiffer, G. Fournié)
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Figure 6
Figure 6. Expected number of secondary farm cases of African swine fever (r) caused by 1 infected farm through the movements of vehicles, South Korea, 2019. r is computed as a function of the average daily number of vehicles visiting a farm (x-axis) and the average daily number of farms visited by a vehicle (y-axis). Different lines represent different thresholds for the proportion of iterations in which r was <1 (p = 1, 0.99, or 0.95). Vehicles were assumed to remain infectious for 3 days after leaving an infected farm. Appendix Figure 9 shows the results with different assumptions on the duration of vehicle infectiousness.
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