Volume 27, Number 7—July 2021
Transmission Dynamics of African Swine Fever Virus, South Korea, 2019
|Median (95% HDI)||G-R||DIC|
|Potentially contaminating vehicle movement (Pv)||53.9 (7.4–113.4) × 10−4||1.00||275.8 (null model: 284.6)|
|Wild boar cluster (Pw)||8.2 (0–19.0) × 10−4||1.00|
|Background (country, )||0.03 (0–0.1) × 10−4||1.00|
|Background (epidemic region, )||5.4 (1.1–11.2) × 10−4||1.00|
|Mean of the gamma distribution (α)||3.7 (1.0–8.8)||1.00|
|Variance of the gamma distribution (β)||44.6 (5.2–113.5)||1.00|
|Length of time between infection and reporting (D)†||4.3 (1.0–15.8)|
*DIC, deviance information criteria; G-R, Gelman-Rubin convergence diagnostic; HDI, highest density interval; Pv, risk for infection resulting from 1 potentially contaminating vehicle movement; Pw, daily risk for infection resulting from being located in an African swine fever virus–positive wild boar cluster; PB1, daily background risk (country); PB2, daily background risk (epidemic region). †The distribution was obtained by simulating values from the gamma distribution, based on parameters α and β randomly sampled from their joint distribution.
1These authors contributed equally to this article.