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Volume 27, Number 7—July 2021

Transmission Dynamics of African Swine Fever Virus, South Korea, 2019

Dae Sung Yoo1, Younjung Kim1Comments to Author , Eune Sub Lee, Jun Sik Lim, Seong Keun Hong, Il Seob Lee, Chung Sik Jung, Ha Chung Yoon, Sung Hwan Wee, Dirk U. Pfeiffer, and Guillaume Fournié
Author affiliations: Animal and Plant Quarantine Agency, Gimcheon, South Korea (D.S. Yoo, E.S. Lee, S.K. Hong, I.S. Lee, C.S. Jung, H.C. Yoon, S.H. Wee); Jockey Club College of Veterinary Medicine and Life Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China (Y. Kim, D.U. Pfeiffer); Kangwon National University College of Veterinary Medicine, Chuncheon, South Korea (J.S. Lim); Royal Veterinary College, London, UK (D.U. Pfeiffer, G. Fournié)

Main Article


Posterior parameter estimates and posterior predictive length of time between infection and reporting of African swine fever, South Korea, 2019*

Parameters Model output
Median (95% HDI) G-R DIC
Full model
Potentially contaminating vehicle movement (Pv) 53.9 (7.4–113.4) × 10−4 1.00 275.8 (null model: 284.6)
Wild boar cluster (Pw) 8.2 (0–19.0) × 10−4 1.00
Background (country, ) 0.03 (0–0.1) × 10−4 1.00
Background (epidemic region, ) 5.4 (1.1–11.2) × 10−4 1.00
Mean of the gamma distribution (α) 3.7 (1.0–8.8) 1.00
Variance of the gamma distribution (β) 44.6 (5.2–113.5) 1.00
Length of time between infection and reporting (D)† 4.3 (1.0–15.8)

*DIC, deviance information criteria; G-R, Gelman-Rubin convergence diagnostic; HDI, highest density interval; Pv, risk for infection resulting from 1 potentially contaminating vehicle movement; Pw, daily risk for infection resulting from being located in an African swine fever virus–positive wild boar cluster; PB1, daily background risk (country); PB2, daily background risk (epidemic region). †The distribution was obtained by simulating values from the gamma distribution, based on parameters α and β randomly sampled from their joint distribution.

Main Article

1These authors contributed equally to this article.

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Page updated: June 16, 2021
Page reviewed: June 16, 2021
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