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Volume 28, Number 1—January 2022
Research

Transmission Dynamics of Large Coronavirus Disease Outbreak in Homeless Shelter, Chicago, Illinois, USA, 2020

Yi-Shin Chang, Stockton Mayer, Elizabeth S. Davis, Evelyn Figueroa, Paul Leo, Patricia W. Finn1Comments to Author , and David L. Perkins1
Author affiliations: University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA (Y.-S. Chang, S. Mayer, E. Figueroa, P. Leo, P.W. Finn, D.L. Perkins); Rush University Medical Center, Chicago (E.S. Davis)

Main Article

Table 1

Model parameters for fitting in study of transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease outbreak in homeless shelter, Chicago, Illinois, USA, 2020*

Fitted variables Range of values fitted Description of variable Referenced ranges for fitting Directly dependent model parameters Dependent model phases Dependent model compartments
β0
 0–445
 Initial β
 NA
 β, R0
 1, 2, 3, 4
 S, E
βf_pct_β0
 0–1
 Final β as percentage of β0
 NA
 β
 1, 2, 3, 4
 S, E
k
 0.01–2
 Rate of transformation of β
 NA
 β
 1, 2, 3, 4
 S, E
tTrans
 1–50
 Day where β reaches halfway between β0 and βf
 NA
 β
 1, 2, 3, 4
 S, E
Incubation period
 2.8–4.0
 Time between E and I compartments
 (8)
 σ
 1, 2, 3, 4
 E, Ia, Is
Asymptomatic percentage
 0.18–0.87
 Asymptomatic percentage
 (9,10)
 σs, σa, R0
 1, 2, 3, 4
 E, Ia, Is
Infectious period for symptomatic persons, d
 3–8
 Infectious duration for symptomatic persons
 (11,12)
 ϒsp, R0
 1, 2, 3, 4
 Is, R+s
Infectious period for asymptomatic persons, d
 3–8
 Infectious duration for asymptomatic persons
 (11,12)
 ϒap, R0
 1, 2, 3, 4
 Is, R+a
Period of RT-PCR–positivity for symptomatic persons, d
 16–35
 Duration of RT-PCR–positivity of symptomatic persons
 (13,14)
 ϒsn
 1, 2, 3, 4
 R+s, R–s
Period of RT-PCR–positivity for asymptomatic persons, d
 3–35
 Duration of RT-PCR–positivity for asymptomatic persons
 (13,14)
 ϒan
 1, 2, 3, 4
 R+a, R–a
α
 0.01–1
 Rate of detection of symptomatic infectious persons through screening
 NA
 α
 2, 3, 4
 Is, Isolsoft, Hotel
λ0_pct_β
 0–1
 Rate of transmission between persons in Isolsoft and S compartment, as a percentage of β
 NA
 λ0
 2, 3
 S, E
λisol_pct_β
 0–0.5
 Rate of transmission between persons in isolation units and S compartment, as a percentage of β
 NA
 λisol
 4
 S, E
Isolation duration, d
 14
 Rate of return from isolation units to R compartment = 1/[14 d]†
 NA
 ρ
 2, 3, 4
 Isol, R
RT-PCR sensitivity
 0.72–0.90
 RT-PCR sensitivity
 N.S. Padhye, unpub. data‡
 –
 1 and 2,§ 4
 -
ω0
 0.05–1.0
 Rate of hospital admission of Infectious symptomatic persons before screening
 NA
 ω0
 1
 Is, Hosp
ω 0.05–1.0 Rate of hospital admission of Isolsoft symptomatic persons during phase 2 NA ω 2 Isolsoft, Hosp

*Details of optimization and calculation can be found in the Appendix (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/EID/article/28/1/21-0780-App1.pdf). E, exposed; Ia, infectious asymptomatic; Is, infectious symptomatic; NA, not applicable; R+, recovered PCT-positive; R–, recovered PCR-negative; RT-PCR, reverse transcription PCR; R0, basic reproduction number; S, susceptible.

†Value not fitted.

‡https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20078949v2.

§Fitting based on hospital-based test results.

Main Article

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Main Article

1These senior authors contributed equally to this article.

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Page updated: December 20, 2021
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