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Volume 31, Number 6—June 2025

Research

Force of Infection Model for Estimating Time to Dengue Virus Seropositivity among Expatriate Populations, Thailand

Erica Rapheal, Amornphat Kitro, Hisham Imad, Marco Hamins-Peurtolas, Jutarmas Olanwijitwong, Lapakorn Chatapat, Taweewun Hunsawong, Kathryn Anderson1Comments to Author , and Watcharapong Piyaphanee1
Author affiliation: University of Minnesota School of Public Health, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA (E. Rapheal); Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand (A. Kitro); Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand (H. Imad, J. Olanwijitwong, L. Chatapat, W. Piyaphanee); Osaka University, Osaka, Japan (H. Imad); University of California, San Francisco, California, USA (M. Hamins-Peurolas); US Army Medical Directorate of the Armed Force Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok (T. Hunsawong); SUNY Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, New York, USA (K. Anderson)

Main Article

Table 4

Estimates from reduced multivariate model of DENV seropositivity by years in a dengue-endemic area in study of force of infection model for estimating time to seropositivity among expatriate populations, Thailand*

Reduced multivariate model Odds ratio (95% CI)
Years unexposed 1.01 (0.99–1.02)
Male sex 1.35 (0.74–2.47)
Urban living setting 2.45 (1.09–5.49)
Frequent use of mosquito repellent 1.33 (0.75–2.35)
Frequent use of mosquito nets 1.22 (0.69–2.16)
Frequent use of long sleeves 0.62 (0.36–1.05)
Frequent use of air conditioning 0.77 (0.46–1.30)

*Force of infection (FOI) is 0.01 (95% CI 0.00–0.05). Serocatalytic models estimating dengue force of infection were fit using a binomial model with a cloglog link function with log(years in dengue-endemic area) as an offset. A 10% backward selection method was used to determine which variables were included in the reduced model. Variables were sequentially removed from the model, and the variable with the least impact on the model was dropped. This process was repeated until no variables could be removed without >10% change in the FOI..

Main Article

1These last authors contributed equally to this article.

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