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Volume 31, Number 9—September 2025

Dispatch

Modeling Case Burden and Duration of Sudan Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak in Uganda, 2022

Donal Bisanzio, Henry Kyobe Bosa, Barnabas Bakamutumaho, Carolyne Nasimiyu, Diana Atwine, Daniel Kyabayinze, Charles Olaro, Robert F. Breiman, M. Kariuki Njenga, Henry Mwebesa, Jane Ruth Aceng, and Richard ReithingerComments to Author 
Author affiliation: RTI International, Washington, DC, USA (D. Bisanzio, R. Reithinger); Ministry of Health, Kampala, Uganda (H.K. Bosa, B. Bakamutumaho, D. Atwine, D. Kyabayinze, C. Olaro, H. Mwebesa, J.R. Aceng); Washington State University, Pullman, Washington, USA (C. Nasimiyu, M.K. Njenga); Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA (R.F. Breiman)

Main Article

Figure

Predicted individual-based model epidemic curves compared with actual epidemic data for study modeling case burden and duration of Sudan Ebola virus (SUDV) disease outbreak in Uganda, 2022. A) Baseline scenario, simulating the actual response to the outbreak, including timing of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs; i.e., contact tracing, isolation, personal protective equipment). B) Delayed outbreak response scenario, which assumed a 5-month delay in reaching the NPI coverage and uptake of the 2022 SUDV outbreak. C) Out-of-control scenario, which assumed a 5-month delay in having NPIs in place, as well as a mean 50% contact tracing and isolation rate. Black bars indicate actual numbers of cases reported during the outbreak.

Figure. Predicted individual-based model epidemic curves compared with actual epidemic data for study modeling case burden and duration of Sudan Ebola virus (SUDV) disease outbreak in Uganda, 2022. A) Baseline scenario, simulating the actual response to the outbreak, including timing of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs; i.e., contact tracing, isolation, personal protective equipment). B) Delayed outbreak response scenario, which assumed a 5-month delay in reaching the NPI coverage and uptake of the 2022 SUDV outbreak. C) Out-of-control scenario, which assumed a 5-month delay in having NPIs in place, as well as a mean 50% contact tracing and isolation rate. Black bars indicate actual numbers of cases reported during the outbreak.

Main Article

Page created: July 10, 2025
Page updated: August 26, 2025
Page reviewed: August 26, 2025
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