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Volume 31, Number 9—September 2025
Dispatch
Modeling Case Burden and Duration of Sudan Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak in Uganda, 2022
Donal Bisanzio, Henry Kyobe Bosa, Barnabas Bakamutumaho, Carolyne Nasimiyu, Diana Atwine, Daniel Kyabayinze, Charles Olaro, Robert F. Breiman, M. Kariuki Njenga, Henry Mwebesa, Jane Ruth Aceng, and Richard Reithinger
Table
Comparison of predictions obtained from modeling case burden and duration of Sudan Ebola virus disease outbreak in Uganda, 2022*
| Scenarios | No. cases (95% CrI) | No. deaths (95% CrI) | Epidemic duration (95% CrI) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 Ebola outbreak† |
164 |
77 |
16.5 wk |
| Individual-based Uganda model‡ | |||
| Baseline | 193 (131–277) | 81 (55–124) | 22 wk (14–25 wk) |
| Delayed response | 778 (665–901) | 303 (259–351) | 24 wk (20–28 wk) |
| Out-of-control | 13,537 (9,376–19,919) | 5,279 (3,656–7,768) | 24 mo (22–27 mo) |
*CrI, credible interval. †Reported burden and duration. ‡Predicted burden and duration.
Page created: July 10, 2025
Page updated: August 19, 2025
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