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Volume 32, Number 7—July 2026

Research

Prognostic Value of PCR Cycle Threshold Value in Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever, Iraq, 2022–2023

Raghad I. Khaleel, Ihab R. Aakef, Riyadh A. Al-hilfi, Hussein A. Hasan, Iman M. Aufi, Hawraa A. Shakir, Ahmed A. Hussein, Noora A. Abdulhadi, Zainb A. Mohsin, Amal A. Raheem, Sarah W. Ahmed, Ghazwan A. Baghdadi, Chiori Kodama, Antoine Chaillon, Anaïs LegandComments to Author , Pierre Formenty, Sinan G. Mahdi, and Adnan Khamasi
Author affiliation: Central Public Health Laboratory, Baghdad, Iraq (R.I. Khaleel, H.A. Hasan, I.M. Aufi, H.A. Shakir, A.A. Hussein, N.A. Abdulhadi, Z.A. Mohsin, A.A. Raheem, S.W. Ahmaed); Communicable Disease Control Center, Baghdad (I.R. Aakef, G.A. Baghdadi, S.G. Mahdi); Directorate of Public Health, Ministry of Health, Baghdad (R.A. Al-hilfi); World Health Organization Eastern Mediterranean Regional Office, Cairo, Egypt (C. Kodama); World Health Organization Emergencies Programme, Geneva, Switzerland (A. Chaillon, A. Legand, P. Formenty); World Health Organization Country Office, Baghdad (A. Khamasi)

Main Article

Table 2

Multivariate logistic regression results from study of prognostic value of PCR cycle threshold value for Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, Iraq, 2022–2023*

Characteristic OR (95% CI) p value q value†
Ct
 0.83 (0.79–0.86)
 <0.001
 <0.001
Hemorrhagic <0.001 <0.001
N NA
Y
 2.72 (1.82–4.07)
Age
 1.01 (1.00–1.02)
 0.094
 0.31
Sex 0.73 0.92
M NA
F
 0.93 (0.62–1.39)
Time from onset to admission
 0.97 (0.89–1.06)
 0.56
 0.79
Tick bite 0.98 0.98
N NA
Y
 1.0 (0.56–1.73)
Contact with confirmed case 0.38 0.71
N NA
Y
 0.61 (0.17–1.77)
Contact with raw meat 0.38 0.71
N NA
Y
 1.20 (0.80–1.80)
Contact with animal 0.86 0.96
N NA
Y
 1.04 (0.68–1.57)
Year of outbreak 0.42 0.71
2022 NA
2023 0.84 (0.55–1.29)

*We analyzed data from 896 cases confirmed by reverse transcription PCR. A total of 150 of those case-patients were deceased. Bold text indicates statistical significance after false discovery rate correction. Ct, cycle threshold; NA, not applicable; OR, odds ratio. †False discovery rate correction for multiple testing.

Main Article

Page created: May 21, 2026
Page updated: June 11, 2026
Page reviewed: June 11, 2026
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