Volume 9, Number 5—May 2003
Pandemic Influenza and Healthcare Demand in the Netherlands: Scenario Analysis
|Input variable||Age groups (y)||Sources|
|Population at high risk||0.09×106||0.6×106||0.7×106||(38–40)|
|Age distribution of influenza cases||34.3||60.4||5.2||As in a regular epidemic in general practice (41)a|
|Current vaccination degree||(42,43)|
|Population at low risk||0.02||0.05||0.20|
|Population at high risk||0.65||0.75||0.80|
|Efficacy influenza vaccine||80%||80%||80%||(13–15)|
|Invasive pneumococcal infections||(12,16,17)|
|Hospitalization rate (per 100,000) for influenza||As in a regular epidemic (44)a|
|Population at low risk||0.1||0.1||2|
|Population at high risk||28||28||10|
|Hospitalization rate (per 100,000) for influenza-related pneumonia||As in a regular epidemic (44)a|
|Population at low risk||0.3||0.3||38|
|Population at high risk||72||72||175|
|Death rate (per 100,000)||As in a regular epidemic (45)a|
|Low risk population||0.6||0.6||26.2|
|High risk population||29.6||29.6||84.9|
aAssuming that during a regular epidemic 10% of the population becomes ill.
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