Volume 9, Number 5—May 2003
Research
Pandemic Influenza and Healthcare Demand in the Netherlands: Scenario Analysis
Marianne L.L. van Genugten*
, Marie-Louise A. Heijnen*, and Johannes C. Jager*
, Marie-Louise A. Heijnen*, and Johannes C. Jager*
Table 7
Hospitalizations and deaths for alternative influenza vaccine efficacya
| Scenario | No. of hospitalizations |
No. of deaths |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base case | Vaccine efficacy |
Base case | Vaccine efficacy |
||||
| All age groups equal to 80%b | Age groups <64 y = 40%; for >65 = 30%c | All age groups equal to 80% | Age groups <64 y = 40%; for >65 y = 30%c | ||||
| Nonintervention |
10,186 |
10,186 |
10,186 |
4,040 |
4,040 |
4,040 |
|
| Influenza vaccination |
|||||||
| Total population |
3,847 |
2,037 |
6,866 |
1,738 |
808 |
2,811 |
|
| Risk groups | 3,968 | 2,158 | 6,926 | 1,789 | 859 | 2,837 | |
aSee Table 1.
bMinimum variant based on Meltzer et al. (9).
cMaximum variant assumes 80% efficacy for all ages.
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