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Volume 9, Number 8—August 2003
Perspective

Detecting Bioterror Attacks by Screening Blood Donors: A Best-Case Analysis

Edward H. Kaplan*Comments to Author , Christopher A. Patton†, William P. FitzGerald†, and Lawrence M. Wein‡
Author affiliations: *Yale School of Management and Yale Medical School, New Haven, Connecticut, USA; †American Red Cross, Arlington, Virginia, USA; ‡Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA

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Figure 3

Probability distribution of attack detection delay for a contagious agent. Blood donations occur at rate k=0.05 per person per year, the screening test has a mean window period of ω=3 days, the reproductive number R0=3, the mean duration of infectiousness r-1=14 days, and initial attack sizes range from 100 through 1,000 infections.

Figure 3. Probability distribution of attack detection delay for a contagious agent. Blood donations occur at rate k=0.05 per person per year, the screening test has a mean window period of ω=3 days, the reproductive number R0=3, the mean duration of infectiousness r-1=14 days, and initial attack sizes range from 100 through 1,000 infections.

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Page created: December 22, 2010
Page updated: December 22, 2010
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The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.
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