Volume 9, Number 5—May 2003
Research
Pandemic Influenza and Healthcare Demand in the Netherlands: Scenario Analysis
Marianne L.L. van Genugten*
, Marie-Louise A. Heijnen*, and Johannes C. Jager*
, Marie-Louise A. Heijnen*, and Johannes C. Jager*
Table 5
Hospitalizations and deaths in various scenarios for alternative age-specific attack ratesa
| Scenario | No. of hospitalizations per age group |
No. of deaths per age group |
|||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular epidemic | Groups equally affected | Age group proportion |
Age group proportion |
||||||||||
| 1:1:2 | 1:2:1 | 2:1:1 | Previous pandemicsb | Regular epidemic | Groups equally affected | 1:1:2 | 1:2:1 | 2:1:1 | Previous pandemicsb | ||||
| Nonintervention |
10,186 |
12,478 |
19,630 |
9,184 |
10,252 |
7,541 |
4.040 |
5,199 |
9,009 |
3,288 |
4,197 |
2,746 |
|
| Influenza vaccination |
|||||||||||||
| Total population |
3,847 |
4,844 |
8,068 |
3,285 |
3,939 |
2,716 |
1,738 |
2,245 |
3,929 |
1,401 |
1,809 |
1,169 |
|
| Risk groups |
3,968 |
4,962 |
8,171 |
3,410 |
4,058 |
2,840 |
1,789 |
2,294 |
3,972 |
1,454 |
1,860 |
1,222 |
|
| Pneumococcal vaccination |
7,008 |
8,574 |
13,460 |
6,323 |
7,053 |
5,200 |
3,903 |
5,015 |
8,697 |
3,178 |
4,054 |
2,654 |
|
| Neuraminidase inhibitors | 5,093 | 6,239 | 9,815 | 4,592 | 5,126 | 3,771 | 2,020 | 2,600 | 4,505 | 1,644 | 2,099 | 1,373 | |
aGross attack rate 30%.
bDistribution from Meltzer et al. (9) based on previous pandemics.
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