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Volume 18, Number 1—January 2012


The 1918–19 Influenza Pandemic in Boyacá, Colombia

Gerardo ChowellComments to Author , Cécile Viboud, Lone Simonsen, Mark A. Miller, Rodolfo Acuna-Soto, Juan M. Ospina Díaz, and Abel Fernando Martínez-Martín
Author affiliations: Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, USA (G. Chowell); National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, USA (G. Chowell, C. Viboud, M.A. Miller); George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA (L. Simonsen); Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Delegación Coyoacán, Mexico (R. Acuna-Soto); Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, Boyacá, Colombia (J.M. Ospina Díaz, A.F. Martínez-Martín)

Main Article

Table 3

Estimates of the growth rate and reproduction number associated with the 1918–19 influenza pandemic in Boyacá, Colombia*

Mortality outcome Early growth phase period, 1918 Daily growth rate, mean (95% CI) R estimate, mean (95% CI)
3-d generation interval
4-d generation interval
Exp dist. Delta dist. Exp dist. Delta dist.
Deaths from respiratory illness Oct 13–Nov 15 0.121
(0.120–0.122) 1.40
(1.39–1.40) 1.44
(1.43–1.44) 1.54
(1.54–1.54) 1.62
Excess deaths from respiratory illness Oct 27–Nov 15 0.137
(0.136–0.139) 1.45
(1.45–1.46) 1.51
(1.51–1.52) 1.62
(1.62–1.63) 1.73

*Estimates are based on daily data. A generation interval of 3 or 4 d is assumed, with an exponential (exp) or a fixed (delta) distribution (dist.). R, reproduction number.

Main Article